Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
631 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN.  A CLIPPER
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BRING
SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING THIS...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT BANDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY...
WITH A JOG TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LAKE ERIE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS REMAINED STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES
IN THE HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS...WHILE SUNNY SKIES CURRENTLY GRACE
MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. UPSTREAM DATA SHOWS A NOTABLE
NORTHWARD TREND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN...SO THE QUIET
WEATHER OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL
CHANGE FOR THE WORSE...PROBABLY AFTER DARK. FROM A COMMUTING
STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS WITHIN METRO BUFFALO SHOULD FAIR OKAY
EXCEPT FOR THOSE TRAVELLING TO AND PAST THE SOUTHTOWNS...WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE. ONCE THE BAND STARTS MOVING
INTO THE METRO BUFFALO AREA...EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM WHILE FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...WILL LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS WITH TIME AS THE BAND MOVES
NORTHWARD...ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT ALTOGETHER BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

LAKE ONTARIO...A BAND HERE IS ALSO REMAINED STATIONARY WITH UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN BAY...LEADING TO
INITIAL TOTALS PROBABLY IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET.  THIS BAND TOO IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
ALSO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NY...EXPECT ONLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.  THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT FAR
WESTERN NY JUST BEFORE OR AROUND DAYBREAK.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS WNY...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AROUND OR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED SNOW RATES
OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.  WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...AND ADVISORIES FOR
THE COUNTIES FURTHER EAST FOR THIS ENHANCEMENT.  NORMALLY A CLIPPER
WOULD ONLY DROP A FEW INCHES AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT WITH
LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SOARING TO ABOVE 15000FT WITH A WELL ALIGNED
WSW FLOW...THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW...LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...FRONTAL PASSAGE...TOGETHER WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
CREATING BLOWING SNOW AND SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...FEEL IT IS
WARRANTED TO GO ABOVE MODEL QPF.  DAYTIME AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH 4-8
INCHES...MUCH OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE MINIMAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONGOING SYNOPTIC
SNOW...WILL START THE WARNING FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HIGHEST TOWARD SOUTHERN
METRO BUFFALO HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3-6
INCHES...TAILING OFF SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...MOST AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EAST SHOULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT MAY START TO TAKE SHAPE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WILL THEREFORE START THE
NEXT LAKE EFFECT WARNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING
ROUND 2 OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A POTENT/FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INITIALLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING EAST OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. OFF BOTH LAKES LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
NEAR THE TIME OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WITH LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
REACHING 15K FEET...THEN SLOWLY DROPPING TO AROUND 10K FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

THE INITIAL LAKE ENHANCED BAND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH INLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW ABRUPTLY SHIFTS TO THE WNW. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE EARLY...BUT WILL THEN
QUICKLY BREAK APART INTO WEAKER MULTIPLE BANDS MAINLY ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHTER GIVEN THE SHORTER FETCH...AND BETTER BANDING AND UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS GOING INTO NE OHIO AND NW PA.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST
OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONSOLIDATE INTO
A SINGLE MORE INTENSE BAND DURING THE MORNING ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND
WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD MAY SEE MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR ONCE AGAIN AS THE SNOW ORGANIZES INTO ONE SINGLE
BAND AND SOME UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDING FEATURES.

FINALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS BAND MAY BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH
TOWARDS BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STEADILY DROP TO 7K
FEET OR LESS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HIT THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT
ROBUSTLY WITH HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...BUT
THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING FLOW...AND SOME OF THE OTHER
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NAM SOLUTION MAY BE
OVERDONE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS REACHING BUFFALO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL FORECASTS.

EXPECT STORM TOTALS FROM THIS SECOND EVENT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING TO REACH 12-20 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.
TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
BUFFALO AREA MAINLY FROM THE TUESDAY SNOWFALL.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

AN INITIAL BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CROSS MUCH OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL REGION DURING TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THIS AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AT 15K FEET...AND ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT CROSS THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SNOWFALL RATES
MAY BRIEFLY REACH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE TUG HILL
WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.

THIS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PURE LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT ON WNW
FLOW... WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY FOCUSING ON SOUTHERN OSWEGO...NORTHERN
CAYUGA...AND NORTHEAST WAYNE COUNTY. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THIS BAND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY.

THE BAND WILL THEN MOVE FARTHER NORTH TO THE TUG HILL REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN A GOOD INTENSITY AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STAY AROUND 10 FEET. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FALL STEADILY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
BEGINS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BROADEN AND WEAKEN INTO AN AREA OF
LIGHTER SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW FROM THE
NORTHERN TUG HILL TO NEAR WATERTOWN.

EXPECT STORM TOTALS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DURING THE SECOND
EVENT TO REACH 1 TO 2 FEET FROM NORTHEAST WAYNE COUNTY ACROSS
NORTHERN CAYUGA...MUCH OF OSWEGO...WESTERN LEWIS...AND SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY. BASED ON BAND PLACEMENT AND TIMING...THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD FOCUS FROM WOLCOTT TO MARTVILLE AND FULTON...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY MAX ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BUT BY THIS TIME THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD HAVE ENDED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT BECOMES TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO. THIS WOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PUSH OF MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
WITH WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 40.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH RENEWED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION WITH A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND EXTENSIVE WRAP
AROUND SNOW FOR SUNDAY HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTHWARD
OFF LAKE ERIE...IMPACTING THE KBUF/KIAG AIRFIELDS WITH BELOW IFR
VSBYS BETWEEN THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AND AROUND 04Z. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF KART WILL
LIKEWISE DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING BELOW IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO THE KART AIRFIELD BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z AND 06Z.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A GENERAL SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH AGAIN IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. AFTER AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...LAKE ENHANCE...AND THEN PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
COMMENCE...WITH ADDITIONAL...BUT BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED AREAS OF
IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN BANDS OF SNOW. THESE BANDS OF
SNOW WILL BE NEAR KBUF/KIAG AND KART EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN.  THEN
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE AS A CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ002-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001-010.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-
     011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...ZAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NYZ007-008-122030-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-122030-
NIAGARA-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-013-014-021-122030-
MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-122030-
ORLEANS-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-122030-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-122030-
OSWEGO-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-122030-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-122030-
NORTHERN ERIE-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ011-122030-
GENESEE-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-085-122030-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-122030-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-122030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-122030-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-062-122030-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
320 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
501 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     SNOW             ANGOLA ON THE LAKE      42.65N  79.05W
01/11/2016  M20.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600148

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
506 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     SNOW             COLDEN                  42.65N  78.72W
01/11/2016  M12.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600149

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
508 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     SNOW             EAST AURORA             42.77N  78.62W
01/11/2016  M4.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600150

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     SNOW             8 NNW REDFIELD          43.64N  75.88W
01/11/2016  M16.0 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600151

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
516 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     SNOW             FORESTVILLE             42.45N  79.20W
01/11/2016  M11.0 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600152

SJW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NYZ001-010-011-120145-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
653 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GENESEE...
NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM EST...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING SNOW FALL RATES
OF 3 OR MORE INCHES PER HOUR IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY AND GENESEE COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS INTO NIAGARA
COUNTY.

VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS... BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH... AND QUICK SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF
BUFFALO AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUFFALO...CHEEKTOWAGA...NORTH
TONAWANDA...CLARENCE...LACKAWANNA...KENMORE...DEPEW...AMHERST AND
TONAWANDA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 56 AND 48A.

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE IN
THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

LAT...LON 4308 7900 4308 7891 4302 7889 4300 7894
      4312 7831 4294 7834 4278 7884 4282 7887
      4284 7886 4287 7889 4293 7890 4299 7894
      4296 7894 4296 7897 4300 7902

WELCH