Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MOST NEAR
MFE...WHILE BRO AND HRL ARE SO FAR TROUBLE-FREE. THE CONVECTION
TREND HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE CURRENT SUITE OF TAFS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE BEING WORKED OVER BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...OH TO HAVE A CRYSTAL
BALL TO SEE EXACTLY HOW SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL EVOLVE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH A CRYSTAL
BALL WOULD SHED LIGHT ON SO MANY MODEL DIFFICULTIES IN RESOLVING
ONGOING AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE MOVE ALONG. WHEN
FACED WITH THE NEAR IMPOSSIBILITY OF SPECIFIC MESOSCALE
DEVELOPMENT...THE BEST ANSWER ISN'T TO PUNT BUT RATHER GO WITH THE
MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION BASED ON SIMILAR PRIOR EVENTS AND THE BIGGER
PICTURE.

BEFORE DOING THIS...A DISCUSSION OF THE GFS AND RECENTLY ARRIVED
ECMWF...AS WELL AS THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH. FIRST...THE ECMWF IS
HIGHLY POLLUTED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM UPSTREAM EVENTS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...FORECASTING A PHANTOM 0.75" IN
SOUTHEAST WEBB COUNTY *BY 18Z TODAY* WHEN NOTHING BUT CLOUDS AND A
FEW SPRINKLES HAS BEEN THE STORY.  BY 00Z...JUST A FEW HOURS FROM
NOW...IT PLOPS NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER THE JIM HOGG/EASTERN ZAPATA
RANCHLANDS.  WHILE A SINGLE STRONG CELL COULD DO THIS...THERE'S VERY
LITTLE SKILL AND ONLY THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING MESO-VORT CENTER
TO MAKE THE CASE.  BY 00Z...SAID SPEED MAX IS ON THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND BY 06Z LINKED UP WITH AN MCS THAT DEVELOPS IN NUEVO
LEON/TAMAULIPAS AND WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.  THE GFS ISN'T MUCH
BETTER...WITH A CONVECTIVE BOMB BY NOW ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND WITH
THE REALITY JUST THE ONSET OF SCATTERED ACTION ALONG THE WAVY
BOUNDARY.  THEREAFTER...A SIMILAR BLOSSOMING TO LAST NIGHT IS SEEN
AT 00Z ACROSS EASTERN NUEVO LEON WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A NICE BAND
OF 250 MB DIVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE...ALBEIT WEAK. THAT
BLOB BECOMES THE EASTERN TAMAULIPAS MCS BY 06Z WHICH MATCHES THE
ECMWF AT THAT POINT.

WITH EACH MODEL...THE VALLEY SEEMS TO MISS THE ACTION OVERNIGHT.
ONLY THE HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH HAS SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGIC AT
THIS POINT WITH AT LEAST SOME CLUSTERING...DISORGANIZED ON RECENT
RUNS...OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RANCHLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING.  THEN...EVEN THEY "LOSE" THE ACTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...BUT IS THIS REALISTIC?

SO...USING LITTLE MORE THAN CLIMO ANALOGS...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES
MINIMAL TO NONE FOR THE LOWER AND PARTS OF THE MID VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET AS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE AND RESURGENCE OF SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC
WINDS WILL TEND TO KEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SH 285/SH 16 AREA AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL STORM MOTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH
TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND AUGUR WELL FOR LOWER CHANCES IN
THE VALLEY AS WELL.

BY SUNSET...EXPECT AN ARC OF CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG/EAST OF THE
SIERRA MADRE TOWARD EASTERN NUEVO LEON AND NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. SOME
OF THIS WILL SURVIVE OR DEVELOP INTO STARR/ZAPATA/SOUTHERN JIM HOGG
AND POSSIBLY REACH INTO BROOKS AND HIDALGO.  WITH ALL MODELS AND
THIS MORNING'S PRECURSOR GIVING CONFIDENCE IN A MEXICAN MCS VS. AN
RGV ONE OVERNIGHT...THE BETTER ACTION MAY WELL SHIFT ON AN
ORTHOGONAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THAT SAID...CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PART OF AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE RGV...SO HAVE RETAINED THE "CHANCE" POPS BUT ADDED SEVERE
WORDING BASED ON SPC GUIDANCE...RECENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...AND
LOCAL GRAPHICS. WAIT AND SEE IS THE BUZZWORD AT THIS POINT.  WOULD
NOT SURPRISE TO SEE ANOTHER WAKE LOW AND SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40-
50 MPH FROM ACTION TO OUR SOUTH AT THE VERY LEAST DURING THE 11 PM
TO 4 AM TIME FRAME.

BEYOND TONIGHT...ASSUMING ATMOSPHERE IS "WORKED OVER" FROM WHATEVER
HAPPENS OVERNIGHT EXPECT A PERIOD OF QUIET THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE PERHAPS A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES BY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION SLITHERS EAST OF
THE SIERRA MADRE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...SHOWN BY ALL MODELS...WHICH MAY
GIVE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SOMETHING.  CURRENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30/40 RANGE FIT THE UNCERTAINTY BILL FOR NOW.

ONE MORE ITEM TO NOT FORGET ABOUT: FOR THE BEACH...PERPENDICULAR
SWELL COURTESY OF THE BIG EASTERN U.S. HIGH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
MAY REACH THE COASTLINE AND CREATE RUN-UP AND SOME OVERWASH INTO
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEACH CAMS TO SEE IF STATEMENT
NEEDED FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
MOVES WELL NORTH OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES ABSORB WITHIN A
LARGE SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. THE ENERGY FROM
THIS LOW SWINGS EAST DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WIMPS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL SUITE AND CONFIRMED BY THE WPC
FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST AND
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

MODEST MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TO
ALLOW FOR THE OCCASIONAL DAILY CROP OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND DRIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HOME GROWN
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH ANY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR OTHER
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MAY ACT AS DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS AND STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE IS NO ONE PARTICULAR DAY OR ELEMENT
SEEN TO PROVIDE THE REGION A MORE DEFINITE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE 20 TO
40 PERCENT EACH DAY OR EVENING THAT HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST REMAINS
IN TACT UNTIL THERE IS A MORE DEFINITE TREND SEEN BY THE MODELS.

GFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD CONSISTENCY AND
SHOW NO VARIATION BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE IN ORDER AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST WAS MADE.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ THE "BACKGROUND" OF THE
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH MODERATE WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS PREVALENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH END DUE TO
PRIOR SWELL STILL PROPAGATING WEST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH
HAS JUMPED LEVELS TO 8.5 FEET AT BUOY 20 AS OF 1 PM. THE
"FOREGROUND" WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION. SHOULD
ANOTHER NORTHEAST MEXICO MCS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AND COULD GUST TO 30-40 KNOTS AND REALLY CRANK THE
CHOP IN TIME FOR ANY EARLY MORNING FISHING EXCURSIONS. FOR THE
GULF...WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY AT MINIMUM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND A LOW TO
MODERATE SEA TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH BROAD RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH ONLY BRIEF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FRIDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ248>257-192100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
403 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL 11 PM CDT TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING
ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH DUE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY OBSERVATIONS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE REPORTED BY RESIDENTS TO
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BROWNSVILLE.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-192100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
403 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DUE TO
ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS...ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY OBSERVATIONS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND WATERSPOUTS
SHOULD BE REPORTED BY MARINERS TO THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD
AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ255>257-190215-
COASTAL WILLACY TX-INLAND CAMERON TX-COASTAL CAMERON TX-
818 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLACY AND EASTERN
CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 817 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HOLLY BEACH TO NEAR
THE U.S. COAST GUARD STATION IN CAMERON COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...ARROYO CITY...BROWNSVILLE...PHARR CENTRAL FIRE
STATION...PORT ISABEL LIGHTHOUSE...GARRIA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...U.S. COAST
GUARD STATION...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND CONVENTION CENTER...PORT ISABEL HIGH
SCHOOL AND BEACH ACCESS FIVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2595 9715 2595 9740 2646 9748 2645 9737
      2642 9745 2641 9745 2644 9738 2640 9742
      2639 9741 2644 9736 2639 9737 2639 9734
      2635 9738 2645 9723 2636 9733 2644 9723
      2636 9731 2641 9722 2607 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 181DEG 14KT 2614 9732 2603 9713

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
834 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ251-254-256-190215-
INLAND WILLACY TX-COASTAL WILLACY TX-KENEDY TX-
834 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENEDY...NORTHERN
WILLACY AND NORTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 834 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PORT MANSFIELD AIRPORT...OR NEAR PORT MANSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAYMONDVILLE...PORT MANSFIELD...SAN PERLITA...RAYMONDVILLE POLICE
DEPARTMENT...RAYMONDVILLE FIRE STATION...PORT MANSFIELD CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE...PORT MANSFIELD AIRPORT...WILLAMAR...RAYMONDVILLE HIGH SCHOOL
AND REBER MEMORIAL LIBRARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2639 9732 2639 9741 2638 9737 2644 9783
      2669 9768 2663 9744 2666 9745 2666 9744
      2659 9743 2664 9732 2663 9732 2657 9728
      2664 9731 2664 9730 2649 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 283DEG 20KT 2653 9753

CASTILLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
854 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      26.08N  97.18W
04/18/2016  E1.00 INCH       CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            CITIZEN VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS QUARTER-SIZE HAIL ON
            SOUTH PADRE ISLAND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1600015

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
856 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ253-190245-
HIDALGO TX-
856 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO AND
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 856 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
OLIVAREZ...OR OVER ELSA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESLACO...DONNA...MERCEDES...ELSA...PROGRESO...EDCOUCH...LA VILLA...ISAAC D.
RODRIGUEZ PARK...EDCOUCH-ELSA HIGH SCHOOL AND LLANO GRANDE COUNTRY
CLUB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2607 9808 2606 9809 2607 9810 2606 9813
      2639 9808 2639 9788 2626 9786 2607 9786
      2606 9787 2607 9789 2606 9793 2607 9793
      2605 9794 2606 9795 2605 9797 2607 9798
      2606 9799 2607 9803 2605 9804 2605 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 359DEG 14KT 2626 9799

CASTILLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
928 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ248-190315-
ZAPATA TX-
928 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

AT 928 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF LAS PALMAS...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ZAPATA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDINA...ZAPATA MIDDLE SCHOOL...LAS PALMAS...ZAPATA COUNTY AIRPORT...
ZAPATA HIGH SCHOOL...ZAPATA COUNTY PUBLIC LIBRARY...ZAPATA COUNTY FIRE
DEPARTMENT...ROMEO T. FLORES PARK AND ZAPATA--MEDINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2709 9943 2711 9944 2713 9943 2715 9944
      2718 9943 2727 9945 2732 9937 2727 9933
      2727 9931 2694 9914 2688 9932 2692 9932
      2693 9938 2694 9939 2696 9939 2698 9938
      2702 9942 2701 9943 2702 9944 2706 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 239DEG 15KT 2701 9947

CASTILLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
929 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ254-255-257-190315-
INLAND WILLACY TX-INLAND CAMERON TX-COASTAL CAMERON TX-
929 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WILLACY AND CAMERON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 927 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MILLER JORDAN MIDDLE SCHOOL TO LAGUNA VISTA POLICE DEPARTMENT.
THESES STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARLINGEN...SAN BENITO...LA FERIA...LOS FRESNOS...SANTA ROSA...RANCHO
VIEJO...RIO HONDO...PALM VALLEY...LOS INDIOS AND LAURELES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2584 9743 2594 9758 2603 9764 2605 9786
      2634 9785 2634 9733 2631 9735 2625 9733
      2626 9729 2625 9731 2622 9734 2623 9732
      2611 9730 2608 9724 2602 9722 2600 9726
      2601 9722 2596 9720 2593 9735 2584 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 043DEG 5KT 2609 9759 2611 9732

60