Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

529 
WHUS71 KBOX 111426
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

ANZ231>234-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.160611T1800Z-160612T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
  SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.160611T1800Z-160613T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.160611T1800Z-160612T0000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH AROUND WINDS 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
  SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.160611T1800Z-160613T0000Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.160611T1800Z-160613T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
  SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0081.160612T1400Z-160613T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
  SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0081.160612T1400Z-160613T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
1026 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

721 
WHUS71 KBOX 111941
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

ANZ232>234-120345-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-160612T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0082.160612T1200Z-160613T1200Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. 
  SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-120345-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-160612T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0082.160612T1200Z-160613T0000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. 
  SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-120345-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-160612T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0025.160612T1500Z-160613T0300Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-120345-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0081.160612T1400Z-160613T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0025.160612T1500Z-160613T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-120345-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0081.160612T1400Z-160613T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0025.160612T1500Z-160613T0300Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
  SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-120345-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-160612T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0025.160612T1500Z-160613T0300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-120345-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-160613T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
  SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-120345-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-160613T1200Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
441 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches the region today from the west with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area this afternoon from west to
east. Mild and somewhat humid tonight as the warm front moves across
the region. A cold front sweeps across the area Sunday followed by a
return to cooler than normal temperatures Sunday night through
Monday night. Other than a spot shower Monday next week appears dry
with moderating temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for this morning.
Temperatures continue to radiate out as low temps dip into the 40s.
Surface winds have switched a more southerly direction across the
Cape and the Islands. This has resulted in an increase of dewpoints.
Temp/dewpoint spread has lowered enough for some patchy fog to
develop. Otherwise a dry forecast for this morning.

TODAY...

Southern New England remains in a northwest flow pattern for today
with ridge to the west and low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic. Two shortwaves appear to move through the flow over the
next 24 hours. The first wave pushes through today while the second
approaches tonight/tomorrow.

Convection that started over the upper Midwest has maintained itself
and is over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning. Appears that
the severe weather threat has diminished with this cluster as
conditions have become more elevated. Late this morning, both 850 mb
theta-e values and moisture flux increase as this cluster approaches
southern New England. Also appears that the thunder continues to
redevelop along the nose of the 850 mb jet. This combined with
approaching shortwave and warm front will help maintain the MCS and
bring widespread precip to the region. A rumble of thunder is
possible as elevated parameters show, but the better instability
remain to the south and west of the region, in the warm sector.
Therefore believe that the threat for any strong storm is low for
the late morning/early afternoon timeframe.

Late in the afternoon (21z), surface warm front will begin to
approach the region resulting in an increase in instability. Biggest
question is if the atmosphere will be able to recover after the
decaying MCS pushes through. Have noticed that the K values do drop
as instability increases which leads to a question of available
moisture. RH values in the mid-levels also are on a decrease thanks
to subsidence behind the first shortwave as shown in cross sections.
The overall big picture shows that all the better parameters for
strong/severe storms will remain to the south and west of the
region. However if the atmosphere does destabilize and has enough
moisture, then, we could see some gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall with any strong thunderstorm. Best location for this to
occur will be across western MA and CT.

At this time - am not anticipating a widespread severe weather
event. Ensemble guidance struggles to give southern New England over
600 j/kg of CAPE. Also the SREF severe weather potential probability
continues to highlight locations south and west of the region. When
it comes to convection, many parameters can still shift, so it is
important to remain weather aware in case the warm front surges
northward quicker improving our chances for severe weather today.

Last thing to note, within any strong shower or thunderstorm, heavy
rainfall will be a main threat. PWAT values are near 1.5 inches -
close to 2 standard deviations above normal. This combined with the
increase in dewpoints will result locally heavy downpours. There is
a low risk in flooding this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

Southern New England will be in the warm sector tonight. Could see a
few showers linger across the South Coast, Cape and Islands but bulk
of the precip should come to an end. 850 mb temps warm to 14-17C
overnight. However, near the pre-dawn hours strong CAA will begin to
usher in as the cold front pushes through.

While most of the region will remain dry overnight, there is a
chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Strong shortwave will push
through the flow resulting in a potent cold front moving across
southern New England. Guidance continues to show strong shear values
and modest instability overnight. The only thing that is lacking is
the moisture. Some of the guidance tries to indicate that the
atmosphere will recover between 09-12z with a thin line of mid-level
moisture across SE Mass, Cape and Islands. If this does occur we
could see an isolated thunderstorm or two but confidence is low at
this time.

Otherwise plenty of low level moisture before cold front pushes
through. Dewpoints will rise into the 60F overnight. Soundings show
a weak low level inversion, which may aid in patchy fog developing
across the area.

SUNDAY...

Cold front will push through on Sunday resulting in mostly dry
weather. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two when cold pool moves over
the region. Lapse rates will also be quite steep which will help aid
in mixing up to 850 mb. Increasing LLJ thanks to tight pressure and
thermal gradient will reach close to 40-45 kts. This will lead to
gusty northwesterly winds near 40-45 kts especially across higher
elevations. A wind adv may be needed up something to fine tune in
the next forecast.

Temperatures will warm in the morning before strong CAA sweeps
through southern New England. High temps will warm into the 70 to
mid 70s but will quickly fall in the afternoon as diurnal cu
develops limiting radiational heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights ...

* Cooler than normal temperatures Sun ngt thru Mon ngt
* Mainly dry weather Tue thru Fri with warm days and cool nights

Overview ...

Omega block pattern well established over the CONUS this period with
large amplitude ridge across the Plains into central Canada along
with troughs along both coasts. Both the GEFS and EPS ensembles show
some energy under cutting the ridge mid to late next week but
guidance in good agreement that any mid level trofiness or closed
low would track well southwest of New England across the MS valley.

Temperatures ...

Good model agreement on anomalous closed low of -3 standard
deviations across the Gulf of ME Sun night thru Mon night. This will
result in a cool modified continental polar airmass over New England
with 850 temps on the order of -1 to -2 standard deviations cooler
than climo. Thus overnight mins will be in the 50s regionwide with
upper 40s western-northwest MA. However by Tue and especially mid to
late next week this closed mid level low moves from the Gulf of ME
to Newfoundland...allowing height rises and warmer air to overspread
New England. This will promote moderating temperatures with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s...fairly close to normal. Given the airmass
will be dry humidity levels will be comfortable. This will also
allow temps overnight to dip into the 50s. Very pleasant especially
by mid June standards.

Precipitation ...

Dry pattern given NW flow aloft and streams remaining unphased. Low
risk for a a spot shower Mon afternoon as additional short wave
energy pinwheels thru SNE around Gulf of ME mid level low. Otherwise
looking at a dry pattern much if not all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...

Today...High confidence. Generally VFR. MVFR conditions possible
after 18Z in passing showers. SW winds could gust between 15-25
kts. Low risk for TS mainly SW of a line from PSF-PVD-ACK.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Risk for showers and thunderstorms
decreases. Could still see a spot showers. Some localized fog,
especially where any rain is observed with MVFR/IFR.

Sunday...High confidence. VFR in diurnal cu. Breezy with NW
between 25-35 kts. Low chance for 40 kts across higher terrain.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, low confidence on timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, low confidence on timing.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sun ngt through Mon night ... VFR with gusty wnw winds. High
forecast confidence.

Tue and Wed ... VFR with light winds. High forecast confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...

Today and tonight...Moderate Confidence. SW winds may gust to
around 25 kt around the southern near shore waters, supporting a
small craft advisory. Otherwise, main issue will be the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern waters late in the day. Some storms may have stronger
winds. The winds shift to the W late tonight and building wind-
waves may reach 5+ ft by morning SCA has been issued for ocean
waters.

Sunday...Moderate confidence. Cold front will sweep over the
waters shifting the winds to a more NW direction. Strong CAA
behind the front will increase winds and thus seas. Gusts near 30
kts possible with a low chance for gales. SCA will be needed for
all of the waters, however only issued for certain zones to avoiddouble
headlines.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sun night thru Mon night ... gusty wnw winds of 20-30 kt. Low risk
for a few 35 kt gale force gusts. Otherwise dry weather and good
vsby. High forecast confidence.

Tue and Wed ... light winds with subsiding seas. Dry weather and
good vsby too. High forecast confidence.&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ231>234-236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ230-
     250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

CTZ004-MAZ004>007-012>024-026-RIZ001>008-120800-
WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
359 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW RISK OF WEST WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-120800-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
359 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-120800-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
359 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER HARTFORD
AND SPRINGFIELD AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND A
VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW RISK OF WEST WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NOCERA

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