Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trof will dig southward along the Atlantic coast on
Friday. This system will push a cold front into north Alabama
Friday afternoon. Low level convergence will be weak along the
front due to northwest winds ahead of the front, but instability
will be high in the afternoon due to very warm temperatures and
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. A few severe storms are
possible, mainly along and south of I-20. Surface temperatures
will likely run a little warmer on Friday than today due to warm
air advection ahead of the front. This could push heat indices above
105 degrees for the western and southern counties, and will
maintain a low confidence for heat in the HWO. The storms will
likely linger well into the evening hours on Friday as the front
shifts southward. The surface front will push into south Alabama
on Saturday bringing a reprieve from the hot and humid conditions.
Will maintain a slight chance of storms across the far southern
counties on Saturday. Much drier air will overspread central
Alabama by Sunday with surface dewpoints falling into the 50s
Sunday afternoon, with the possible exception of the southwest
counties where dewpoints may stay in the lower 60s.

A closed upper low is forecast to develop off the Carolina coast
by Sunday. This will help maintain a drier and cooler air mass
over Alabama through Tuesday. Another short wave trof will dig
southward across the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday. This will push
a weak front into north Alabama Tuesday night and bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the north Alabama Tuesday night
and all of central Alabama on Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance
of rain for Wednesday night and Thursday due to uncertainties
associated with northwest flow aloft.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

For the 18z TAFs...The primary forecast challenges are
forecasting isolated showers and thunderstorms across central
Alabama through this afternoon and then again tomorrow afternoon.

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms were primarily
located to the southeast of KTOI as of 17:30Z...and moving off to
the southeast. Kept a mention of vicinity showers in at the start
of the TOI taf to account for this activity. Otherwise
across central Alabama...visible satellite imagery showed that
cumulus field was relatively flat in nature...indicative of
forcing for subsidence aloft. If not for weak subsidence in
place...the low-level heat and humidity in place across the
region should have resulted in at least some vertical development
of the cumulus field by now. While this should keep rain chances
low for this afternoon across all area TAF sites...we still have
several hours of heating left in the day. Will keep a close eye
on the vertical development of the cumulus field this afternoon
and will amend it if looks like isolated showers or thunderstorms
are more likely to develop in the peak heating hours of the day.

Any showers or storms that develop should remain
diurnally driven...so expect mostly clear skies after sunset.
Will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm chances once again
tomorrow afternoon...possibly building in from the
north/northeast to the south throughout the day. Think that
showers and thunderstorms are likely to hold off until after 18Z
when a weak cold front is expected to push slowly south across
Alabama.

Cavanaugh

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon relative humidity values generally remain in the 40s
through Saturday. Drier low level air will drop these values into the
30s Sunday and Monday and then they bounce back into the 40s. It
will stay hot Today and Friday with highs into the 90s with a cool
down on the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms are expected Today through Friday. A
few of the storms may become strong to severe Today and Friday
with a few wind gusts. A cold front move north to south over Central
Alabama late Friday and rain changes decrease by Saturday. Sunday
through Tuesday appear dry with only small chances by Wednesday.

Low level winds and transport winds will be west today, shifting to
northwest Friday, and then east on Saturday. 20 foot winds stay
rather light less than 10 kts.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  93  69  88  63 /  20  30  10  10  10
Anniston    72  93  70  87  65 /  20  40  10  10  10
Birmingham  74  95  71  89  68 /  20  40  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  74  95  71  90  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
Calera      74  94  71  89  67 /  20  40  20  10  10
Auburn      74  94  71  85  66 /  20  40  20  10  10
Montgomery  75  97  73  90  69 /  20  30  30  10  10
Troy        75  97  73  87  69 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-172000-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM PHENIX CITY TO CLANTON TO TUSCALOOSA TO
HAMILTON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM 2 PM
UNTIL 8 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY FROM 3 PM UNTIL
9 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ015-024-162215-
WALKER AL-JEFFERSON AL-
444 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BELOIT...OR OVER CORDOVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JASPER...SUMITON...CORDOVA...DORA...ADAMSVILLE...GRAYSVILLE...
PARRISH...MULGA...SIPSEY...MAYTOWN...WEST JEFFERSON...
GORGAS STEAM PLANT...GORGAS...ROCKY HOLLOW...BURNWELL...QUINTON...
BELOIT...LYNNS PARK...FORESTDALE AND BARNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8729 3384 8709 3358 8691 3348 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 339DEG 15KT 3375 8716

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ025-027-028-036-037-162245-
TALLAPOOSA AL-TALLADEGA AL-COOSA AL-SHELBY AL-CLAY AL-
456 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY...EASTERN SHELBY...NORTHERN
COOSA...SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA AND NORTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM WESTOVER TO NEAR SYCAMORE TO NEAR LINEVILLE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDER CITY...SYLACAUGA...CHELSEA...CHILDERSBURG...COLUMBIANA...
LINEVILLE...ASHLAND...WILSONVILLE...GOODWATER...KELLYTON...
TALLADEGA SPRINGS...STEWARTVILLE...WEOGUFKA...VINCENT...
HARPERSVILLE...WESTOVER...JACKSONS' GAP...NEW SITE...
GOLDVILLE AND SYCAMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8595 3300 8652 3302 8652 3302 8656
      3305 8662 3307 8661 3307 8666 3343 8667
      3332 8611 3335 8565 3311 8565 3311 8559
      3289 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 340DEG 21KT 3335 8657 3321 8612 3326 8573

32/DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
458 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE ANNISTON           33.63N 85.76W
06/16/2016                   CALHOUN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN OFF OF DEARMANVILLE DRIVE IN ANNISTON.
            ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
502 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ024-162245-
JEFFERSON AL-
502 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF GORGAS STEAM PLANT TO NEAR
IRONDALE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...VESTAVIA HILLS...BESSEMER...HOMEWOOD...
MOUNTAIN BROOK...HUEYTOWN...IRONDALE...FAIRFIELD...FULTONDALE...
PLEASANT GROVE...TARRANT...MIDFIELD...ADAMSVILLE...BRIGHTON...
LIPSCOMB...GRAYSVILLE...SYLVAN SPRINGS...BROOKSIDE AND MULGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 8663 3347 8660 3347 8667 3342 8672
      3342 8675 3337 8678 3333 8683 3333 8689
      3325 8698 3325 8706 3328 8707 3331 8716
      3344 8731 3350 8729 3350 8726 3353 8727
      3352 8725 3355 8719 3360 8720 3365 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 355DEG 21KT 3355 8719 3351 8670

87/GRANTHAM

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