Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trof will dig southward along the Atlantic coast on
Friday. This system will push a cold front into north Alabama
Friday afternoon. Low level convergence will be weak along the
front due to northwest winds ahead of the front, but instability
will be high in the afternoon due to very warm temperatures and
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. A few severe storms are
possible, mainly along and south of I-20. Surface temperatures
will likely run a little warmer on Friday than today due to warm
air advection ahead of the front. This could push heat indices above
105 degrees for the western and southern counties, and will
maintain a low confidence for heat in the HWO. The storms will
likely linger well into the evening hours on Friday as the front
shifts southward. The surface front will push into south Alabama
on Saturday bringing a reprieve from the hot and humid conditions.
Will maintain a slight chance of storms across the far southern
counties on Saturday. Much drier air will overspread central
Alabama by Sunday with surface dewpoints falling into the 50s
Sunday afternoon, with the possible exception of the southwest
counties where dewpoints may stay in the lower 60s.

A closed upper low is forecast to develop off the Carolina coast
by Sunday. This will help maintain a drier and cooler air mass
over Alabama through Tuesday. Another short wave trof will dig
southward across the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday. This will push
a weak front into north Alabama Tuesday night and bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the north Alabama Tuesday night
and all of central Alabama on Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance
of rain for Wednesday night and Thursday due to uncertainties
associated with northwest flow aloft.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

For the 18z TAFs...The primary forecast challenges are
forecasting isolated showers and thunderstorms across central
Alabama through this afternoon and then again tomorrow afternoon.

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms were primarily
located to the southeast of KTOI as of 17:30Z...and moving off to
the southeast. Kept a mention of vicinity showers in at the start
of the TOI taf to account for this activity. Otherwise
across central Alabama...visible satellite imagery showed that
cumulus field was relatively flat in nature...indicative of
forcing for subsidence aloft. If not for weak subsidence in
place...the low-level heat and humidity in place across the
region should have resulted in at least some vertical development
of the cumulus field by now. While this should keep rain chances
low for this afternoon across all area TAF sites...we still have
several hours of heating left in the day. Will keep a close eye
on the vertical development of the cumulus field this afternoon
and will amend it if looks like isolated showers or thunderstorms
are more likely to develop in the peak heating hours of the day.

Any showers or storms that develop should remain
diurnally driven...so expect mostly clear skies after sunset.
Will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm chances once again
tomorrow afternoon...possibly building in from the
north/northeast to the south throughout the day. Think that
showers and thunderstorms are likely to hold off until after 18Z
when a weak cold front is expected to push slowly south across
Alabama.

Cavanaugh

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon relative humidity values generally remain in the 40s
through Saturday. Drier low level air will drop these values into the
30s Sunday and Monday and then they bounce back into the 40s. It
will stay hot Today and Friday with highs into the 90s with a cool
down on the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms are expected Today through Friday. A
few of the storms may become strong to severe Today and Friday
with a few wind gusts. A cold front move north to south over Central
Alabama late Friday and rain changes decrease by Saturday. Sunday
through Tuesday appear dry with only small chances by Wednesday.

Low level winds and transport winds will be west today, shifting to
northwest Friday, and then east on Saturday. 20 foot winds stay
rather light less than 10 kts.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  93  69  88  63 /  20  30  10  10  10
Anniston    72  93  70  87  65 /  20  40  10  10  10
Birmingham  74  95  71  89  68 /  20  40  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  74  95  71  90  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
Calera      74  94  71  89  67 /  20  40  20  10  10
Auburn      74  94  71  85  66 /  20  40  20  10  10
Montgomery  75  97  73  90  69 /  20  30  30  10  10
Troy        75  97  73  87  69 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-172000-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM PHENIX CITY TO CLANTON TO TUSCALOOSA TO
HAMILTON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM 2 PM
UNTIL 8 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY FROM 3 PM UNTIL
9 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ050-161815-
BARBOUR AL-
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

AT 1246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER RICHARDS CROSSROADS...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHARDS CROSSROADS...TEXASVILLE...MILLERS FORD AND BAKER HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8545 3182 8513 3179 8513 3178 8514
      3177 8513 3176 8513 3177 8515 3175 8518
      3174 8521 3171 8521 3170 8522 3170 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 300DEG 21KT 3172 8528

32/DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
143 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE BOAZ              34.15N 86.13W
06/15/2016                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWERLINES DOWN OFF OF MOUNTAIN DRIVE IN THE
            MOUNTAINBORO COMMUNITY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0744 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E AURORA              34.11N 86.16W
06/15/2016                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF MOUNTAINBORO ROAD AND
            SHADY GROVE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0744 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE SAND ROCK          34.30N 85.69W
06/15/2016                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON A POWERLINE ON
            COUNTY ROAD 47 IN TUCKERS CHAPEL.

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE WATERHOUSE        34.19N 85.45W
06/15/2016                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 22 AND 797 IN KIRKS GROVE
            COMMUNITY.

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW CEDAR BLUFF       34.25N 85.61W
06/15/2016                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD AT COUNTY ROAD 144 AND
            44 IN CEDAR BLUFF.

0753 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW ATTALLA           34.06N 86.10W
06/15/2016                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN OFF OF BUSTER WILLET ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW ATTALLA           34.04N 86.15W
06/15/2016                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF IVALEE CUTOFF ROAD AND
            PHARR CIRCLE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N GADSDEN             34.06N 86.03W
06/15/2016                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED RADIO REPORT OF A TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF RED OAK ROAD AND SCENIC HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE ONEONTA           33.96N 86.46W
06/15/2016                   BLOUNT             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN.

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW BLOUNT SPRINGS     33.88N 86.84W
06/15/2016                   BLOUNT             AL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ALONG I-65 NORTHBOUND WITH ONE LANE BLOCKED.

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW GLENCOE           33.94N 85.94W
06/15/2016                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

ALZ019-021-162145-
CALHOUN AL-CLEBURNE AL-
413 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANNISTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANNISTON...OXFORD...HEFLIN...SAKS...FORT MCCLELLAN...
WEST END-COBB TOWN...WEAVER...HOBSON CITY...OXFORD LAKE...
BLUE MOUNTAIN...CHALAFINNEE...LAKE CLEBURNE...CHOCCOLOCCO...
DEARMANVILLE...HOLLIS CROSSROADS...CAMP SEQUOYAH AND MICAVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 8547 3350 8575 3356 8580 3358 8580
      3359 8582 3369 8590 3377 8576 3354 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 317DEG 21KT 3365 8575

32/DAVIS