Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Birmingham, AL

411 
WWUS54 KBMX 171834
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
134 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

ALC093-133-171845-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-160617T1845Z/
WINSTON AL-MARION AL-
134 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR WINSTON AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 134 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HELICON TO HACKLEBURG TO NEAR TREMONT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...WINFIELD...HALEYVILLE...LYNN...ARLEY...GUIN...
HACKLEBURG...DOUBLE SPRINGS...BRILLIANT...ADDISON...GLEN ALLEN...
NAUVOO...GU-WIN...SARDIS...CAMP MCDOWELL...HELICON...BRUSHY LAKE...
SMITH LAKE...ASHBANK AND INMANFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8818 3431 8786 3430 8711 3399 8711
      3400 8717 3399 8720 3400 8764 3391 8764
      3392 8795 3402 8795 3402 8799 3405 8799
      3406 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 331DEG 25KT 3414 8720 3427 8782 3419 8825 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Two main concerns to discuss today...the heat and severe
thunderstorm potential.

First up is the HOT and HUMID conditions we're already experiencing
across the area. Some heat indices have already exceeded 100
degrees, and they will continue to climb. Highs will top out in the
mid 90s in most locations, with heat index values rising into the
104-109 degree range this afternoon. PLEASE take the necessary
precautions to prevent heat-related illness! If outdoors, take
frequent breaks, stay in the shade as much as possible, and drink
plenty of water. Also, never leave children, pets, or elderly in
unattended vehicles. The temp inside the car can climb rapidly!

A frontal boundary currently across the TN Valley will continue to
sag southward thru the day. Many HiRes models now indicate storms
developing along/ahead of the front and becoming more organized as
it translates southward into and across Central Alabama. With the
heat and humidity providing ample instability, the dry air aloft and
steep mid-level lapse rates would indicate a decent severe potential
with storms this afternoon. Therefore, will include a limited severe
threat for the majority of our forecast area thru around 9PM. The
greatest threat will be damaging winds. The severe threat appears
lower across our northern counties as it will take a few hours
for storms to organize and strengthen. However, updates may be
needed.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered storms have already developed along/ahead of a frontal
boundary across the TN Valley. These storms are expected to become
more organized and push southward across the forecast area this
afternoon. Have included some initial best-timing of TS for each
terminal, but updates may become needed throughout the afternoon.
Heavy rain could significantly reduce VIS at times. Some storms
could be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Otherwise, VFR cigs should prevail with westerly winds of 10 kts
today. Winds will shift to the NW then N post-frontal.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s combined with high low
level moisture will produce heat indices near 105 degrees this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Some of these
storms may be severe with damaging winds.

Afternoon relative humidity values generally remain in the 40s
through Saturday. Drier low level air will drop these values into the
30s Sunday and Monday and then they bounce back into the 40s next
week.

Transport winds start off northwest and will swing around to the
east by Sunday. 20 foot winds will be 5 to 10 kts through
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 346 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

After an active late afternoon and evening, conditions are now quiet
across central Alabama. Watching a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms in southern MO, which was moving toward the southeast.
If this system holds together and continues its current pace, it
would get into west central Alabama in the late morning (15z/16z)
time frame. But that is a big if, and warming tops on IR satellite
imagery (as of 08z) suggests the system may be weakening. I think
the best strategy at this point is to go with chance POPs in the
afternoon, with a slightly better chance in the south. The oncoming
shift can take a look at the mesoscale situation after sunrise and
adjust those POPs to better pinpoint the best rain chances for
the afternoon.

As for temperatures, conditions still look to be rather hot and
humid. The temps and dewpoints I've got in there for the afternoon
lead to heat index values near or above 105 degrees for several
hours in most areas (with the possible exception of the northeast).
Based on this, I think the best course of action is to issue a Heat
Advisory for today for these areas, effective from noon until 9 pm.

/61/

The synoptic pattern is in rather good agreement amongst the
models this run. By Saturday morning, the short wave trough will
have pushed the surface cold front into far south Alabama. There
remains enough low level moisture to mention small rain chances
far south. High temperatures will only reach the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. Some of the Hi-Res models develop a weak low near the
front Saturday morning as easterly flow kicks in. This may develop
an inverted trough and convergence slightly farther north near
the Mississippi state line. Will have to monitor this as it is
certainly within the realm of possibilities with pops moves
slightly north on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday will be drier and relatively cooler across
Central Alabama. Low level thicknesses drop due to a strong easterly
component behind the front. Daytime conditions will not feel
nearly as hot and humid while overnight lows drop into the low to
mid 60s. Tuesday will remain dry but the temperatures will start
inching upward.

The upper trough re-establishes itself over the far eastern Conus
Wednesday through Friday. At its onset, another cold front moves
from north to south over the state. Rain chances re-enter the
forecast Tuesday night and beyond. At this time, will leave
mention of small rain chances Thursday and Friday due to
differences in where the trough axis sets up and moisture
availability.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  63  86  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
Anniston    70  87  65  86  62 /  10  10  10  10   0
Birmingham  71  89  68  87  65 /  20  10  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  71  90  69  88  66 /  20  20  10  10   0
Calera      71  89  67  88  64 /  20  10  10  10   0
Auburn      72  85  66  84  65 /  30  20  10  10   0
Montgomery  74  90  69  88  67 /  30  30  10  10   0
Troy        73  87  69  86  65 /  50  30  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chambers...
Chilton...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Russell...Shelby...
Sumter...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-182015-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 1 PM UNTIL 7 PM. THE HIGHEST THREAT
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN FORM INTO A LINE AND TRACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 104 TO 109 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LOWER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST. THESE MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.