Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
437 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 432 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Thunderstorms have been forming into a line along the frontal
boundary in west central North Dakota. This update will focus on
adding likely thunderstorm pops along the line for the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening from the western end of Lake
Sakakawea south through the west river region west of the Missouri
River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Main forecast highlight in the short term period will continue to
be possible severe convection this afternoon and evening.

Currently...surface boundary not entering far western ND indicated
by the wind fields and sfc Td readings. Axis of instability over
western ND shifting eastward with time along to ahead of the
frontal boundary, with mixed layer CAPE around 500 and MUCAPE 2-3K
J/KG right now. Effective shear around 35kts. Storms
initialization underway with one cell developing past hour just
west of McKenzie county, and CU fields expanding and getting
agitated over my southwest. Expect further development over the
next few hours. Best PVA over far south central CANADA, however
effects of the wave should still help trigger convection over my
west and central today into this evening. With the wave currently
aloft, we think thunderstorms will be more diurnal in nature this
afternoon through mid evening, then waning quite rapidly with the
onset of darkness though a few lingering robust updrafts very
possible over my east after 03z.

More convection may impact southwestern ND late tonight, though
non-severe.

For the 4th of July, strong dry air advection west to east will
result in a mostly sunny day for most if not all locations. There
remains a slight chance of convection over my southeast, though
models continue to push precipitation chances east of my area more
into either eastern SD or the Red River Valley of ND. Westerly
mixing winds coupled with moderate waa will result in temperatures
from the low 80s to low 90s. Warmer along the thermal ridge into
south central ND where we could see 95F or higher. Stayed more
conservative with my peak highs south central in the low 90s for
now.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

West/southwesterly flow aloft will be in place for the majority
of the long term bringing daily chances for thunderstorms though
with slightly below seasonal temperatures.

Upper low over the southwestern Canada remains quasi-stationary
through Tuesday night, then ejects east towards and into the
Northern Plains Wed-Thurs. Decent chances for rain ahead of this
feature as embedded impulses eject east, though hard to time.
Better chances towards Thursday when the low directly impacts our
area. At this time storm severity remains very questionable with
models keeping the more favorable instability to our south. This
may change late next weekend when stronger southwest flow aloft is
bring depicted by medium range models.

Temperatures are forecast to trend towards below average after
Monday with increasing precipitation chances and as the upper
level jet stream dips south with the arrival of the upper level
low. Warmer next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Low VFR and pockets of MVFR stratus from KMOT to around KJMS will
continue to lift and erode this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front
moving across western ND will cause isolated to scattered storms
to develop and move eastward with local MVFR or IFR conditions. We
still believe KDIK, KBIS, and KMOT could be impacted by storms in
the late afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms will diminish
by late evening. VFR conditions will prevail area-wide overnight and
Monday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
231 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>047-050-041945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-
BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
231 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 /131 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM CDT OR 2 PM MDT
AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ005-013-023-025-037-048-051-041945-
ROLETTE-PIERCE-WELLS-FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LA MOURE-DICKEY-
231 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AND TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             5 NNE DODGE             47.37N 102.16W
07/03/2016  E1.75 INCH       MERCER             ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL STARTED ABOUT 545 PM CDT AND LASTED 10 MIN.

&&

ABELING

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
547 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NDZ042-040015-
GRANT ND-
547 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

AT 546 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF CARSON...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELGIN...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. GERTRUDE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4614 10170 4628 10170 4636 10126 4614 10124
      4613 10128 4614 10129 4612 10131 4611 10130
      4609 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 267DEG 18KT 4620 10162

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAZEN                   47.29N 101.62W
07/03/2016  M72 MPH          MERCER             ND   MESONET

            HAZEN NDAWN OBSERVATION.

&&

NHEINERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
655 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NDZ002-003-011-040045-
BURKE ND-WARD ND-RENVILLE ND-
655 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 655 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF BOWBELLS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWBELLS...TOLLEY AND NORMA.

LAT...LON 4872 10225 4890 10225 4895 10174 4866 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 272DEG 10KT 4881 10209

CJS