Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 20, 2016McLean County, Mercer County, Oliver County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2016, 8:27 PM CDT for McLean County, Mercer County, Oliver County, North Dakota. It was in force for 48 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2016, 8:27 PM CDT (01:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2016, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Oliver County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 20, 8:35 PM CDT	HAIL 1	2 Nw Fort Clark, ND	ARB OBSERVER

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 8 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4358 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1684 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 3.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

274 
WUUS53 KBIS 210127
SVRBIS
NDC055-057-065-210215-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0168.160721T0127Z-160721T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
827 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  EAST CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN OLIVER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 827 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF STANTON...OR 12 MILES WEST OF WASHBURN...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WASHBURN...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...FALKIRK...
  HENSLER AND FORT CLARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4715 10136 4726 10142 4752 10102 4722 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 249DEG 24KT 4723 10129 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

2 follow-up statements

199 
WWUS53 KBIS 210145
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
845 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC057-210154-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160721T0215Z/
MERCER ND-
845 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4717 10123 4716 10129 4715 10133 4721 10132
      4725 10125 4752 10102 4722 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 249DEG 24KT 4727 10113 

$$

NDC055-065-210215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160721T0215Z/
MCLEAN ND-OLIVER ND-
845 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN AND NORTHEASTERN OLIVER COUNTIES...

AT 844 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHBURN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHBURN...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...FALKIRK...
HENSLER AND FORT CLARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4717 10123 4716 10129 4715 10133 4721 10132
      4725 10125 4752 10102 4722 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 249DEG 24KT 4727 10113 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

034 
WWUS53 KBIS 210201
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
901 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC055-065-210215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160721T0215Z/
MCLEAN ND-OLIVER ND-
901 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN AND NORTHEASTERN OLIVER COUNTIES...

AT 901 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WASHBURN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHBURN...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...HENSLER AND FORT CLARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4717 10123 4716 10129 4715 10133 4721 10132
      4725 10125 4739 10095 4734 10089 4722 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 249DEG 24KT 4731 10097 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 6:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 6:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
656 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Updated for upgrade of severe thunderstorm watch to a tornado
watch across far north central North Dakota, where there have been
numerous reports of funnels and multiple reports of a tornado with
one of the earlier storms. Also received baseball size hail
report near Berthold. Watches go through 11 pm. SPC Meso Analysis
page continues to show 5500 J/Kg of MLCAPE across central ND with
the best 0-6km effective bulk shear of 40-55 knots across the
north central areas. Significant tornado parameter values are
maximized around 4 across the tornado watch area. 22z operational
HRRR clears convection out of our area by 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Upgraded much of the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning
across much of south central North Dakota and into the James River
Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are
observed across these areas given strong evapotranspiration. With
temperatures quickly climbing into the 90s, heat index values to
110 degrees are likely to continue to the afternoon and early
evening. While dewpoints will mix out a bit the rest of the day,
all guidance is under-doing surface dewpoints this afternoon.

Regarding the severe convective threat this afternoon and evening,
cumulus fields continue to develop across southwest and northwest
North Dakota in the vicinity of weak surface confluence as of 2015
UTC. Strong instability is in place with effective deep layer
shear of 35-50 kts. While coverage may be low, any storms that
develop are favored to become supercellular with all threats
possible. Storms through the afternoon and evening are likely to
be tied to the aforementioned boundary as it propagates east. The
19 UTC KBIS sounding still shows some capping to overcome, yet,
also supports the potential for very large hail with MU CAPE near
7000 j/kg. See the 20 UTC SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for further
details.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Cooling temperatures into the weekend and a possible severe
thunderstorm threat Friday highlights the extended forecast.

Overall, the 12 UTC suites are in agreement on the broad upper
level ridge across the CONUS flattening Friday into the weekend,
with near zonal flow into next week. This would favor a return to
near normal temperatures. The next best chance for thunderstorms
is Friday into Saturday as a wave possibly coming onshore to the
pacific northwest on Thursday propagates into the Northern Plains.
SPC has placed much of the area in a slight risk in their day 3
outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR conditions expected. Thunderstorms briefly degraded
conditions at KMOT but are pushing east of the area now.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening
for NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...JNS
AVIATION...JNS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:07 PM CDT, 5 hours 20 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044-212015-
MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-DUNN-STARK-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ001>005-009-017-031-032-040-212015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-212015-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PJA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 6:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             4 NW NEW LEIPZIG        46.41N 102.01W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jul 20, 6:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             1 SW DENBIGH            48.30N 100.60W
07/20/2016  E0.88 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

            REPORTED RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

PJA

Local storm report, Jul 20, 7:29 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
729 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             ELGIN                   46.40N 101.85W
07/20/2016  E1.25 INCH       GRANT              ND   PUBLIC

            ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ELGIN. SOCIAL MEDIA POST.

&&

NHEINERT

Local storm report, Jul 20, 7:54 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
754 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             GEORGE LAKE             48.10N 100.38W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJA

Local storm report, Jul 20, 8:06 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
806 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             10 W HANNOVER           47.11N 101.65W
07/20/2016  M1.00 INCH       OLIVER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ARB OBSERVER

&&

NHEINERT

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 8:23 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
723 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ041-042-210200-
HETTINGER ND-GRANT ND-
723 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL HETTINGER AND WEST
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 723 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEW LEIPZIG...OR 8 MILES WEST OF ELGIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...LEITH...BENTLEY AND HEIL.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4628 10211 4646 10212 4652 10154 4625 10153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 268DEG 21KT 4638 10201

HEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger	23 min
Jul 20, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Rolette	44 min
Jul 20, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant	49 min
Jul 20, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	64 min
Jul 20, 7:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Oliver	42 min
Jul 20, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Sheridan	64 min
Jul 20, 8:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	37 min
Jul 20, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Oliver	60 min
Jul 20, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	43 min
Jul 20, 8:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Sheridan	31 min
Jul 20, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Sheridan, Wells	67 min
Jul 20, 9:09 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Oliver	3 hr
Jul 20, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Sheridan, Wells	58 min
Jul 20, 9:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Morton, Oliver	33 min
Jul 20, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Foster, Kidder, Sheridan, Stutsman, Wells	60 min
Jul 20, 10:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Oliver	51 min
Jul 20, 10:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Stutsman	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.