Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 20, 2016Oliver County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2016, 7:48 PM CDT for Oliver County, North Dakota. It was in force for 42 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2016, 7:48 PM CDT (00:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2016, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Oliver County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 20, 7:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1	10 W Hannover, ND	ARB OBSERVER

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 2 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4358 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1684 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 3.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

721 
WUUS53 KBIS 210048
SVRBIS
NDC065-210130-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0166.160721T0048Z-160721T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
748 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  OLIVER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 748 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
  HANNOVER...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEULAH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HANNOVER AROUND 810 PM CDT. 
  CENTER AROUND 820 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FORT
CLARK...HENSLER AND NELSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4706 10169 4721 10172 4724 10126 4725 10122
      4725 10120 4726 10119 4727 10105 4704 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 264DEG 24KT 4713 10163 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

1 follow-up statement

346 
WWUS53 KBIS 210109
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
809 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC065-210130-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-160721T0130Z/
OLIVER ND-
809 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OLIVER COUNTY...

AT 808 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HANNOVER...OR
17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEULAH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HANNOVER NOW.   
  CENTER AROUND 820 PM CDT. 

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF HANNOVER.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FORT
CLARK...HENSLER AND NELSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4706 10163 4721 10158 4724 10126 4725 10122
      4725 10120 4726 10119 4727 10105 4704 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 267DEG 16KT 4712 10147 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 6:56 PM CDT, 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 6:56 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
656 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Updated for upgrade of severe thunderstorm watch to a tornado
watch across far north central North Dakota, where there have been
numerous reports of funnels and multiple reports of a tornado with
one of the earlier storms. Also received baseball size hail
report near Berthold. Watches go through 11 pm. SPC Meso Analysis
page continues to show 5500 J/Kg of MLCAPE across central ND with
the best 0-6km effective bulk shear of 40-55 knots across the
north central areas. Significant tornado parameter values are
maximized around 4 across the tornado watch area. 22z operational
HRRR clears convection out of our area by 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Upgraded much of the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning
across much of south central North Dakota and into the James River
Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are
observed across these areas given strong evapotranspiration. With
temperatures quickly climbing into the 90s, heat index values to
110 degrees are likely to continue to the afternoon and early
evening. While dewpoints will mix out a bit the rest of the day,
all guidance is under-doing surface dewpoints this afternoon.

Regarding the severe convective threat this afternoon and evening,
cumulus fields continue to develop across southwest and northwest
North Dakota in the vicinity of weak surface confluence as of 2015
UTC. Strong instability is in place with effective deep layer
shear of 35-50 kts. While coverage may be low, any storms that
develop are favored to become supercellular with all threats
possible. Storms through the afternoon and evening are likely to
be tied to the aforementioned boundary as it propagates east. The
19 UTC KBIS sounding still shows some capping to overcome, yet,
also supports the potential for very large hail with MU CAPE near
7000 j/kg. See the 20 UTC SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for further
details.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Cooling temperatures into the weekend and a possible severe
thunderstorm threat Friday highlights the extended forecast.

Overall, the 12 UTC suites are in agreement on the broad upper
level ridge across the CONUS flattening Friday into the weekend,
with near zonal flow into next week. This would favor a return to
near normal temperatures. The next best chance for thunderstorms
is Friday into Saturday as a wave possibly coming onshore to the
pacific northwest on Thursday propagates into the Northern Plains.
SPC has placed much of the area in a slight risk in their day 3
outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR conditions expected. Thunderstorms briefly degraded
conditions at KMOT but are pushing east of the area now.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening
for NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...JNS
AVIATION...JNS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:07 PM CDT, 4 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044-212015-
MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-DUNN-STARK-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ001>005-009-017-031-032-040-212015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-212015-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PJA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 5:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
535 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             BERTHOLD                48.31N 101.74W
07/20/2016  E2.75 INCH       WARD               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PJA

Local storm report, Jul 20, 5:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             2 NW BURLINGTON         48.29N 101.46W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL

&&

KROLAK

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 6:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
533 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ042-210000-
GRANT ND-
533 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

AT 533 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF NEW LEIPZIG...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELGIN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...LEITH AND HEIL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4640 10205 4652 10205 4658 10202 4658 10154
      4645 10153 4626 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 291DEG 21KT 4648 10197

HEINERT

Local storm report, Jul 20, 6:53 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             4 NW NEW LEIPZIG        46.41N 102.01W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jul 20, 6:57 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             1 SW DENBIGH            48.30N 100.60W
07/20/2016  E0.88 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

            REPORTED RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

PJA

Local storm report, Jul 20, 7:29 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
729 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             ELGIN                   46.40N 101.85W
07/20/2016  E1.25 INCH       GRANT              ND   PUBLIC

            ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ELGIN. SOCIAL MEDIA POST.

&&

NHEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger	23 min
Jul 20, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Rolette	44 min
Jul 20, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant	49 min
Jul 20, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	64 min
Jul 20, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Sheridan	64 min
Jul 20, 8:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	37 min
Jul 20, 8:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Oliver	48 min
Jul 20, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Oliver	60 min
Jul 20, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	43 min
Jul 20, 8:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Sheridan	31 min
Jul 20, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Sheridan, Wells	67 min
Jul 20, 9:09 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Oliver	3 hr
Jul 20, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Sheridan, Wells	58 min
Jul 20, 9:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Morton, Oliver	33 min
Jul 20, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Foster, Kidder, Sheridan, Stutsman, Wells	60 min
Jul 20, 10:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Oliver	51 min
Jul 20, 10:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Stutsman	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.