Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 20, 2016Grant County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2016, 5:52 PM MDT for Grant County, North Dakota. It was in force for 68 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2016, 5:52 PM MDT (23:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2016, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 68 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Grant County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 20, 6:10 PM MDT	HAIL 1.25	Elgin, ND	ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ELGIN. SOCIAL MEDIA POST.
Jul 20, 6:29 PM MDT	HAIL 1	New Leipzig, ND	ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 18 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 3:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2285 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -286 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1417 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

952 
WUUS53 KBIS 202352
SVRBIS
NDC037-210100-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0161.160720T2352Z-160721T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM MDT

* AT 552 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  ELGIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELGIN AROUND 605 PM MDT. 
  CARSON AROUND 650 PM MDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HEIL AND
LEITH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4638 10200 4653 10195 4652 10145 4623 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 291DEG 12KT 4642 10190 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

2 follow-up statements

953 
WWUS53 KBIS 210010
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC037-210100-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-160721T0100Z/
GRANT ND-
610 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY...

AT 610 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ELGIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARSON AROUND 650 PM MDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HEIL AND
LEITH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4637 10198 4651 10178 4648 10148 4623 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 291DEG 12KT 4640 10182 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

981 
WWUS53 KBIS 210019
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
619 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC037-210100-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-160721T0100Z/
GRANT ND-
619 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY...

AT 618 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ELGIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...LEITH AND HEIL. 

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR ELGIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4637 10198 4649 10174 4643 10151 4623 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 291DEG 12KT 4639 10179 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 2:28 PM MDT, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:28 PM MDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
328 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Upgraded much of the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning
across much of south central North Dakota and into the James River
Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are
observed across these areas given strong evapotranspiration. With
temperatures quickly climbing into the 90s, heat index values to
110 degrees are likely to continue to the afternoon and early
evening. While dewpoints will mix out a bit the rest of the day,
all guidance is under-doing surface dewpoints this afternoon.

Regarding the severe convective threat this afternoon and evening,
cumulus fields continue to develop across southwest and northwest
North Dakota in the vicinity of weak surface confluence as of 2015
UTC. Strong instability is in place with effective deep layer
shear of 35-50 kts. While coverage may be low, any storms that
develop are favored to become supercellular with all threats
possible. Storms through the afternoon and evening are likely to
be tied to the aforementioned boundary as it propagates east. The
19 UTC KBIS sounding still shows some capping to overcome, yet,
also supports the potential for very large hail with MU CAPE near
7000 j/kg. See the 20 UTC SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for further
details.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Cooling temperatures into the weekend and a possible severe
thunderstorm threat Friday highlights the extended forecast.

Overall, the 12 UTC suites are in agreement on the broad upper
level ridge across the CONUS flattening Friday into the weekend,
with near zonal flow into next week. This would favor a return to
near normal temperatures. The next best chance for thunderstorms
is Friday into Saturday as a wave possibly coming onshore to the
pacific northwest on Thursday propagates into the Northern Plains.
SPC has placed much of the area in a slight risk in their day 3
outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening, especially across central North Dakota. A
few storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.
Storm coverage is expected to be low with impacts to the terminals
uncertain at this time.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening
for NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044.

&&

PJA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 2:07 PM MDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044-212015-
MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-DUNN-STARK-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ001>005-009-017-031-032-040-212015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-212015-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PJA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:01 PM MDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
501 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TORNADO          4 SW TAGUS              48.31N 101.99W
07/20/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ROPED OUT AND ENDED AT 4...46 PM CDT

&&

ABELING

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:04 PM MDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
504 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TORNADO          1 SW BLAISDELL          48.33N 102.09W
07/20/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF BLAISDELL LOOKING
            NORTHWEST AND GUESSED THE TORNADO WAS 8 MILES NORTHWEST
            OF HIS LOCATION.

&&

KROLAK

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 4:31 PM MDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
431 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ044-202315-
ADAMS ND-
431 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 431 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HAYNES...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HETTINGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAYNES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4594 10268 4595 10269 4620 10232 4614 10212
      4595 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 227DEG 24KT 4596 10253

HEINERT

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
535 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             BERTHOLD                48.31N 101.74W
07/20/2016  E2.75 INCH       WARD               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PJA

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:50 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             2 NW BURLINGTON         48.29N 101.46W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL

&&

KROLAK

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 5:33 PM MDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
533 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ042-210000-
GRANT ND-
533 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

AT 533 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF NEW LEIPZIG...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELGIN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...LEITH AND HEIL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4640 10205 4652 10205 4658 10202 4658 10154
      4645 10153 4626 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 291DEG 21KT 4648 10197

HEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:15 PM MDT	Heat Advisory	BIS	Adams, Bowman, Burleigh, Dickey, Dunn, Emmons and 16 more	24 hr
Jul 19, 8:35 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Slope	25 min
Jul 20, 1:24 PM MDT	Excessive Heat Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Foster, Grant, Kidder and 8 more	6 hr
Jul 20, 3:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Ward	21 min
Jul 20, 3:40 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Mountrail, Ward	35 min
Jul 20, 4:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail, Renville, Ward	48 min
Jul 20, 4:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Adams	44 min
Jul 20, 4:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Ward	61 min
Jul 20, 5:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams	38 min
Jul 20, 5:33 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	27 min
Jul 20, 5:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.