Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 20, 2016Adams County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2016, 5:05 PM MDT for Adams County, North Dakota. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2016, 5:05 PM MDT (23:05 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2016, 5:43 PM MDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Adams County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 3:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2285 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -286 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1417 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

524 
WUUS53 KBIS 202305
SVRBIS
NDC001-210000-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0159.160720T2305Z-160721T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
505 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 600 PM MDT

* AT 505 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HAYNES...OR
  10 MILES EAST OF HETTINGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10249 4602 10257 4620 10230 4618 10208
      4609 10200 4595 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 232DEG 12KT 4599 10242 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

2 follow-up statements

004 
WWUS53 KBIS 202331
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
531 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC001-210000-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-160721T0000Z/
ADAMS ND-
531 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY...

AT 530 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
WHITE BUTTE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEMMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 10238 4606 10244 4620 10230 4618 10208
      4610 10203 4602 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 221DEG 16KT 4607 10231 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

436 
WWUS53 KBIS 202343
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC001-202353-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-160721T0000Z/
ADAMS ND-
543 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4599 10238 4606 10244 4620 10230 4618 10208
      4610 10203 4602 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 232DEG 12KT 4609 10227 

$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 2:28 PM MDT, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:28 PM MDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
328 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Upgraded much of the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning
across much of south central North Dakota and into the James River
Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are
observed across these areas given strong evapotranspiration. With
temperatures quickly climbing into the 90s, heat index values to
110 degrees are likely to continue to the afternoon and early
evening. While dewpoints will mix out a bit the rest of the day,
all guidance is under-doing surface dewpoints this afternoon.

Regarding the severe convective threat this afternoon and evening,
cumulus fields continue to develop across southwest and northwest
North Dakota in the vicinity of weak surface confluence as of 2015
UTC. Strong instability is in place with effective deep layer
shear of 35-50 kts. While coverage may be low, any storms that
develop are favored to become supercellular with all threats
possible. Storms through the afternoon and evening are likely to
be tied to the aforementioned boundary as it propagates east. The
19 UTC KBIS sounding still shows some capping to overcome, yet,
also supports the potential for very large hail with MU CAPE near
7000 j/kg. See the 20 UTC SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for further
details.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Cooling temperatures into the weekend and a possible severe
thunderstorm threat Friday highlights the extended forecast.

Overall, the 12 UTC suites are in agreement on the broad upper
level ridge across the CONUS flattening Friday into the weekend,
with near zonal flow into next week. This would favor a return to
near normal temperatures. The next best chance for thunderstorms
is Friday into Saturday as a wave possibly coming onshore to the
pacific northwest on Thursday propagates into the Northern Plains.
SPC has placed much of the area in a slight risk in their day 3
outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening, especially across central North Dakota. A
few storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.
Storm coverage is expected to be low with impacts to the terminals
uncertain at this time.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening
for NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044.

&&

PJA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 2:07 PM MDT, 2 hours 58 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ010>013-018-033-041-043-044-212015-
MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-DUNN-STARK-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ001>005-009-017-031-032-040-212015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-212015-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
307 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 /207 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PJA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 3:56 PM MDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
456 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TORNADO          3 E PALERMO             48.34N 102.16W
07/20/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MM 101

&&

ABELING

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:01 PM MDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
501 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TORNADO          4 SW TAGUS              48.31N 101.99W
07/20/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ROPED OUT AND ENDED AT 4...46 PM CDT

&&

ABELING

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:04 PM MDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
504 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TORNADO          1 SW BLAISDELL          48.33N 102.09W
07/20/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF BLAISDELL LOOKING
            NORTHWEST AND GUESSED THE TORNADO WAS 8 MILES NORTHWEST
            OF HIS LOCATION.

&&

KROLAK

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 4:31 PM MDT, 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
431 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDZ044-202315-
ADAMS ND-
431 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 431 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HAYNES...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HETTINGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAYNES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4594 10268 4595 10269 4620 10232 4614 10212
      4595 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 227DEG 24KT 4596 10253

HEINERT

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:35 PM MDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
535 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             BERTHOLD                48.31N 101.74W
07/20/2016  E2.75 INCH       WARD               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PJA

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:50 PM MDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             2 NW BURLINGTON         48.29N 101.46W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL

&&

KROLAK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:15 PM MDT	Heat Advisory	BIS	Adams, Bowman, Burleigh, Dickey, Dunn, Emmons and 16 more	24 hr
Jul 19, 8:35 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Slope	25 min
Jul 20, 1:24 PM MDT	Excessive Heat Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Foster, Grant, Kidder and 8 more	6 hr
Jul 20, 3:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Ward	21 min
Jul 20, 3:40 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Mountrail, Ward	35 min
Jul 20, 4:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail, Renville, Ward	48 min
Jul 20, 4:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Adams	44 min
Jul 20, 4:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Ward	61 min
Jul 20, 5:33 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	27 min
Jul 20, 5:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	63 min
Jul 20, 5:52 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant	68 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.