Special Weather Statement, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
743 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016

High impact weather potential: strong/svr t-storms possible tonight.

Low level warm/moist advection increasing in northern MI, well in
advance of a cold front emerging from the northern plains.
Impressive moisture gradient in place across the forecast area, with
2pm dew points of 41f at APN and Drummond Isl, but 61f at MBL and
Frankfort. So the muggy air is making inroads. None too soon, as a
line of SHRA/TSRA has formed from ne MN to far eastern SD.

There have been no major changes to earlier thinking. Upstream
airmass is plenty unstable, and deep convection should continue to
grow upscale and become severe. Our airmass is (and will remain) not
as favorable here, but the idea is that our airmass will at least
become not unfavorable. 0-6km bulk shear will be in the 30-40kt
range. Mlcape values of 1-1.5 j/kg will poke in nw lower MI (now
present in far sw lower per SPC meso analysis). Near-term model
guidance in solid agreement in bringing a QLCS across the forecast
area between 8 pm and 3 am. SPC HRRR consistently showing several
bowing segments as line moves thru. Will continue to fine-tune
timing in the gridded forecasts. A marginal severe threat continues
in most of northern MI, but will continue to highlight the best
chance south of a CVX-OSC line, where instability will be highest.
Winds are the greatest threat, hail a smaller one. Hodographs are
impressive (0-3km helicity spiking to 400 or better near the surging
warm front), but our surface parcels will be cooling/stabilizing as
we move thru the evening.

Might be a straggler shower or two behind the main line, but for the
most part precip will cease once it passes. Cloud cover will linger
longer, though some areas (mainly away from eastern upper and the
high terrain of northern lower) will see partial clearing very late.
Min temps will be balmy, mid 50s to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016

6/11)Saturday...Main concern is the boundary that gets hung up from
the night before through N Lower for the morning hours. The models
have backed off of the idea of rain showers/thunder in the afternoon
as all of the indices show that the front pushes south of M-55 by
18z and the best instability with it. High pressure builds into the
region overnight and keeps things dry as well.

(6/12)Sunday...The cooler, drier air continues to build into the
region during the day with the high pressure. The concern then turns
toward the fire weather as the temperatures rise into the lower to
mid 70s for the afternoon. the air is quite dry as the dewpoints
fall to around the mid 30s. The pressure gradient looks to be fairly
tight as the high continues to nose into the Upper Great Lakes.
After having consulted with the land management agencies, with the
rain that is expected tonight, and that the forecast area is now
"green," will put the headline out for the fire weather as an
Elevated Fire Danger day. Overnight, the next ridge runner of storms
is expected to follow the 500 mb ridge down into the Upper Great
Lakes. Looks like the timing for this is between 09z and 12z as the
moisture, warm front and the RRQ of the 70+ kt 500 mb jet streak
moves into the forecast area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in
agreement with this system. which will continue into Monday morning.

(6/13)Monday...The sfc low at 12z is expected to be in NW WI/NE MN/W
Lake Superior. The baroclinic zone of the warm front will be in the
N Lower with the sfc trough/boundary well down state. This will
allow for an initial round of thunderstorms, followed by stratiform
rain behind it. The low and front continue SE through the afternoon,
pushing the forcing out of our area, and focusing things down state
more. Will probably see some showers in the afternoon, but the main
threat with the winds and rain will be in the morning as the MCS
moves through.

Extended...

Models seem to be gelling around a short wave riding the ridge
over the central conus, down across the great lakes, to bring a
shot at some showers and thunderstorms for Monday. The story for
Tuesday through Friday will be a cut-off low that is meandering
through the plains and upper Mississippi river valley. Both the
Euro and GFS show this feature but disagree on placement by a
couple hundred miles...the GFS having a further north solution.
That said...both models show high pressure dropping down from
Ontario and suppressing the low's path down into the Ohio river
valley toward weeks end. So the thinking as of now is that we'll
be looking at generally dry conditions from Tuesday through the
end of the work week...but should this low's track shift north a
bit, we could be dealing with glancing precip blows (maybe around
Thursday). Temperatures through this period look to be quite
pleasant...and just about right where they should be...with highs
in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows generally in the 50's.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Line of TSRA expected tonight.

Expect a line of SHRA/TSRA to cross northern MI tonight, mainly
between 02z-06z. A few strong/svr storms are possible. Conditions
deteriorating toward MVFR, with brief IFR/LIFR certainly possible
around stronger storms. MVFR cigs will be seen late tonight/early
Sat morning at APN/PLN.

Winds from the southwest at 5-15 knots tonight, although gusts
>35kts possible around stronger storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Round of SHRA/TSRA going thru tonight, mainly between 8 pm and 3
am. Some could be strong/severe with high winds, especially on
Lake MI. Breeze se winds on far northern Lake Huron and around
eastern upper MI will wane this evening. Westerly winds will
become breezy on Saturday, veering nw and becoming stronger in
northern sections late as a cold front goes thru. That trend will
advance southward Saturday night. Additional small craft
advisories will likely be needed by then.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346-347.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JSL/KB
AVIATION...Keysor
MARINE...JZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-111200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 3 AM. THERE IS A RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX TO
OSCODA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY...FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS SHOULD ALWAYS PASS ON PERTINENT WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

JZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1038 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MIZ022-023-028-029-033>035-110345-
OGEMAW-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-MISSAUKEE-
1038 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRAWFORD...OSCODA...
ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...MONTMORENCY...SOUTHEASTERN OTSEGO AND SOUTHERN
MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...

AT 1038 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRILEY TOWNSHIP TO NEAR HIGGINS LAKE
TO 10 MILES WEST OF BALDWIN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALPENA...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...GRAYLING...OSSINEKE...
ROSCOMMON...PRUDENVILLE...MIO...ATLANTA...ST. HELEN...LEWISTON...
LACHINE...COMINS...MCKINLEY...GRASS LAKE...LONG RAPIDS...HILLMAN...
MCBAIN...ROSE CITY AND LOVELLS.

LAT...LON 4502 8319 4484 8330 4488 8332 4491 8341
      4491 8389 4416 8389 4417 8534 4422 8533
      4441 8490 4520 8429 4519 8338 4525 8342
      4526 8338 4526 8326 4523 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 277DEG 39KT 4503 8428 4440 8481 4386 8606

MSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1118 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE TRAVERSE CITY      44.74N 85.58W
06/10/2016  M49 MPH          GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT /TVC/.

&&

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW IRONTON           45.26N 85.22W
06/10/2016  M45 MPH          CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION IRONTON /D7501/.

&&

BERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042-110430-
OGEMAW-ALCONA-OSCODA-IOSCO-ARENAC-ROSCOMMON-GLADWIN-
1128 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALCONA...SOUTHEASTERN
OSCODA...IOSCO...SOUTHEASTERN ROSCOMMON...GLADWIN...OGEMAW AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...

AT 1128 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSSINEKE TO NEAR SELKIRK TO NEAR FARWELL.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALGER...OSCODA...GLADWIN...EAST TAWAS...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
STANDISH...AU GRES...STERLING...HARRISVILLE...AU SABLE...GLENNIE...
SOUTH BRANCH...MAPLE RIDGE...BEAVERTON...MIKADO...ROSE CITY...
WHITTEMORE...LINCOLN AND OMER.

LAT...LON 4479 8320 4432 8324 4420 8338 4417 8357
      4406 8359 4403 8343 4404 8349 4405 8365
      4399 8368 4400 8383 4391 8391 4391 8404
      4400 8405 4400 8417 4383 8417 4381 8460
      4415 8461 4431 8429 4479 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 281DEG 36KT 4491 8342 4426 8405 4389 8494

MSB