Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A s/wv across CO will move around the mid level high center
positioned across the Desert SW and across the Panhandles late this
aftn and evening. Anticipate convective development across mountains
to the NW and also outflow boundary to the north across SW KS during
the mid-late afternoon. Models suggest good h85-H7 theta-e recovery
this afternoon after some depletion from yesterdays storms and NAM12
shows ML cape ranging from 1500 j/kg to near 2500 j/kg area wide by
late afternoon. 50 kt NW upper flow assoc w/ jet exit will help
elevate shear values and also should help push along storms to SE
with more consistent storm motions that what we saw yesterday. 0-6 km
bulk shear is forecast to reach 35-45 kts across the region by 00z.
Anticipate isold to sct discrete cells initially across the region
and this will likely provide the best hail potential for this event
(highest in northern areas), but mesoscale models suggest more
potential for mcs to develop originating from the aforementioned
areas to NW and N which suggests more of a wind threat later in the
event as storm complexes converge on the Panhandles. SPC has spread
the slight risk for severe storms to include the entire Panhandles
area and even clips ern OK Panhandle zones with an enhanced risk as
this is most likely area to be impacted by significant MCS from the
north. The NE areas are also clipped by a 2% tornado risk. High LCLs
should be a mitigating factor for tornado development.

.LONG TERM...
Models in good agreement on upper wave moving east of area by 12z
Sat morning. Our far southeastern zones could see some lingering
showers and storms early Saturday, but clouds should be clearing
out between 15z and 18z as wave pushes east.

The rest of the weekend looks to be mostly dry and hot as ridge
builds in further north and east. GFS and Euro show 597 dam ridge
centered over central OK by early next week. Temps will be into
the triple digits or nearly triple digits for most areas from
Sunday and most days next week depending on how much backing of
sfc winds can be achieved. A very weak shortwave is progged to
clip our far northwestern zones Monday... so kept slight pops
there. Otherwise expect dry conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  98  72 101  72 /  50  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  68  99  75 103  73 /  70  20   0   5   0
Boise City OK              65  99  70 100  70 /  60  10   0  10   5
Borger TX                  71 101  76 103  75 /  70  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              69 102  73 105  73 /  50  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  69  99  72 101  71 /  50  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  99  72 100  72 /  60  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 65 101  70 104  69 /  50  10   0   5   5
Guymon OK                  68 101  74 105  73 /  70  10   0   5   5
Hereford TX                69 101  71 103  70 /  40  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                68  97  74 100  74 /  70  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   68  97  72  99  72 /  70  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                70  99  74 100  73 /  60   5   0   0   0
Wellington TX              72 100  74 102  74 /  60   5   0   0   0

&&

AVIATION... Not much change to make to the previous 12Z
discussion. Current observations show mostly clear skies across
the panhandles. Some light showers across the far western OK
panhandle may retrograde south close to KDHT for a few clouds to
make it over NW TX. Otherwise, the best chances of some showers
and thunderstorms will occur after 21Z Friday through the around
03z Saturday from NW to SE associated with a thunderstorm complex.
VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period with MVFR
conditions possible with the heavier showers and thunderstorms to
move over the TAF sites. In the wake of the thunderstorm complex
to move through the region, some lower ceilings and residual BR
conditions are expected during the over night hours which may
linger some MVFR conditions at times. As high pressure builds into
the region after 12Z Saturday, SKC skies and VFR conditions will
return to the region through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-160800-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ001-152145-
CIMARRON OK-
415 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF KEYES...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOISE
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CIMARRON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10214 3688 10213 3689 10253 3699 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 257DEG 17KT 3696 10237

WARD/BRB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ002-152330-
TEXAS OK-
546 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TYRONE TO GUYMON TO NEAR GRIGGS. MOVEMENT
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUYMON...HOOKER...GOODWELL...TEXHOMA...TYRONE...OPTIMA...HARDESTY...
HOUGH...ADAMS AND BAKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10097 3650 10203 3674 10203 3682 10168
      3700 10149 3700 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 300DEG 29KT 3694 10103 3670 10151 3658 10207

BRB/WARD