Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

A stationary front across southern Kansas and surface trough over the
western Panhandles will help keep scattered convection at all three
TAF sites mainly between 00Z and 05Z Saturday...and have included a
TEMPO group in all three TAF sites to allow for this scenario. The
Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites could see an end to any convection by
01Z to 02Z Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF
sites through 00Z Sunday. Southeast to south winds 10 to 20 knots or
15 to 25 knots with some higher gusts possible will prevail at all
three TAF sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A s/wv across CO will move around the mid level high center
positioned across the Desert SW and across the Panhandles late this
aftn and evening. Anticipate convective development across mountains
to the NW and also outflow boundary to the north across SW KS during
the mid-late afternoon. Models suggest good h85-H7 theta-e recovery
this afternoon after some depletion from yesterdays storms and NAM12
shows ML cape ranging from 1500 j/kg to near 2500 j/kg area wide by
late afternoon. 50 kt NW upper flow assoc w/ jet exit will help
elevate shear values and also should help push along storms to SE
with more consistent storm motions that what we saw yesterday. 0-6 km
bulk shear is forecast to reach 35-45 kts across the region by 00z.
Anticipate isold to sct discrete cells initially across the region
and this will likely provide the best hail potential for this event
(highest in northern areas), but mesoscale models suggest more
potential for mcs to develop originating from the aforementioned
areas to NW and N which suggests more of a wind threat later in the
event as storm complexes converge on the Panhandles. SPC has spread
the slight risk for severe storms to include the entire Panhandles
area and even clips ern OK Panhandle zones with an enhanced risk as
this is most likely area to be impacted by significant MCS from the
north. The NE areas are also clipped by a 2% tornado risk. High LCLs
should be a mitigating factor for tornado development.

LONG TERM...
Models in good agreement on upper wave moving east of area by 12z
Sat morning. Our far southeastern zones could see some lingering
showers and storms early Saturday, but clouds should be clearing
out between 15z and 18z as wave pushes east.

The rest of the weekend looks to be mostly dry and hot as ridge
builds in further north and east. GFS and Euro show 597 dam ridge
centered over central OK by early next week. Temps will be into
the triple digits or nearly triple digits for most areas from
Sunday and most days next week depending on how much backing of
sfc winds can be achieved. A very weak shortwave is progged to
clip our far northwestern zones Monday... so kept slight pops
there. Otherwise expect dry conditions to persist.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-160800-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ001-152145-
CIMARRON OK-
415 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF KEYES...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOISE
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CIMARRON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10214 3688 10213 3689 10253 3699 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 257DEG 17KT 3696 10237

WARD/BRB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ002-152330-
TEXAS OK-
546 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TYRONE TO GUYMON TO NEAR GRIGGS. MOVEMENT
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUYMON...HOOKER...GOODWELL...TEXHOMA...TYRONE...OPTIMA...HARDESTY...
HOUGH...ADAMS AND BAKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10097 3650 10203 3674 10203 3682 10168
      3700 10149 3700 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 300DEG 29KT 3694 10103 3670 10151 3658 10207

BRB/WARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

TXZ011-016-152330-
OLDHAM TX-DEAF SMITH TX-
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEAF SMITH AND
SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 551 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GLENRIO...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF NARA VISA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLENRIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 10304 3534 10283 3513 10279 3493 10287
      3498 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 279DEG 6KT 3520 10309

BRB/AMW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ003-152345-
BEAVER OK-
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAVER COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 608 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF TYRONE TO 5 MILES WEST OF
HARDESTY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAVER...FORGAN...ELMWOOD...BRYANS CORNER...MOCANE...BALKO...
TURPIN...FLORIS AND BOYD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10054 3650 10095 3700 10094 3700 10021
      3699 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 287DEG 23KT 3695 10101 3662 10129

BRB/AMW