Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Amarillo, TX

706 
WWUS54 KAMA 170516
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1216 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXC087-129-170600-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-160517T0600Z/
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
1216 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR COLLINGSWORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES...

AT 1216 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LUTIE TO 3 MILES EAST OF HEDLEY TO BRICE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLINGTON...HEDLEY...DODSON...LUTIE...SAMNORWOOD AND QUAIL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10096 3481 10091 3497 10048 3511 10023
      3511 10000 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 278DEG 26KT 3502 10020 3486 10059 3471 10089 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

121 
WWUS54 KAMA 170527
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXC087-129-170600-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-160517T0600Z/
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN COLLINGSWORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES...

AT 1226 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF VINSON TO WELLINGTON TO 7 MILES EAST
OF BRICE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLINGTON...DODSON AND QUAIL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10084 3478 10084 3493 10036 3511 10004
      3511 10000 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 297DEG 20KT 3490 9996 3485 10021 3473 10076 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

290 
WWUS54 KAMA 170535
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXC087-129-170544-
/O.CAN.KAMA.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-160517T0600Z/
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN COLLINGSWORTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. AVOID
DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3475 10084 3478 10084 3493 10036 3511 10004
      3511 10000 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 275DEG 26KT 3490 9991 3485 10016 3473 10071 

$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

.Aviation...
06Z TAF CYCLE

Southwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles tonight through 06Z
Wednesday ahead of an approaching upper trough will allow for
occasional showers at all three TAF sites mainly after 12Z to 16Z
Tuesday. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds around 10 to 20 knots
behind a cold front will diminish by 22Z Tuesday to 01Z Wednesday to
5 to 15 knots. VFR conditions at the Amarillo and Dalhart TAF sites
will become IFR to VLIFR after about 08Z to 10Z Tuesday...while IFR
to VLIFR conditions at the Guymon TAF Site will continue through 06Z
Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 642 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

Aviation...00z tafs

Flying conditions will degrade and remain poor overnight behind a
cold front that is knocking on the door. Thunderstorms will affect
KDHT and KGUY over the next few hours but KAMA should remain tstorm-
free...barely. Winds will be fairly staunch out of the NE through
most of the period. Cigs will drop to LIFR overnight and slowly
struggle through the day Tuesday to make it back to MVFR by the
afternoon.

Simpson

Prev Discussion... /Issued 609 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

.Tornado Watch 177 in effect for the northwestern Texas Panhandle
through 10 PM CDT tonight...

Update...Severe Thunderstorms with a history of producing tornadoes
are located in Dallam County in the northwest Texas Panhandle.
Favorable mesoscale environment in place ahead of these storms have
prompted an issuance of Tornado Watch 177 for the northwestern Texas
Panhandle counties through 10 PM CDT tonight. All residents in the
area should have an ability to receive alerts as these storms
continue to move east to southeast at 35 MPH.

Bieda

Prev Discussion... /Issued 332 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

Mesoscale Update...19z special sounding analysis and update...

A severe thunderstorm was located in Union County in ne NM and this
storm is meandering ESE. This storm/other storms will likely grow
upscale into a severe cluster that will move ese across the northern
half of the Panhandles with hail to golf balls and damaging winds the
greatest threats. This re-affirms the scenario discussed in the 1235
PM mesoscale AFD.

An interesting and potentially concerning boundary has formed and can
be analyzed from Quitaque-Silverton-Happy-Umbarger-Vega-Romero. This
baroclinic zone is a result of the very stable airmass (66F at KAMA)
over much of the ern half of the TX Panhandle meeting with sfc
temps in the 80s in the sw TX Panhandle (83F at Hereford). The 19z
KAMA sounding modified for conditions along the boundary results in a
narrow corridor of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in a more favorably sheared
environment than that of the nrn Panhandles. While convective
initiation in this area is much more conditional and uncertain, IF
(again a big if) a supercell was to form on or encounter this
boundary, the conceptual model for low level mesocyclogenesis along a
boundary may be met in a classic way. The cool side of this nearly
stationary boundary is modifying thermodynamically and Bunker's
right moving storm motion would result in mostly streamwise ingestion
of horizontal vorticity and a reasonably long residence time with the
potential for a storm to ride the boundary. Think that the overall
chance of a supercell forming on or encountering this boundary is
low, but it is an area that will be watched closely through the
evening, especially given that this corridor includes a population of
about 250,000 people.

Outside of the narrow corridor along and 30 miles to the ne of the
boundary, the tornado threat looks less.

Simpson/Beat

Short Term...Today and Tonight...See mesoscale update above for
details on severe thunderstorm potential. Current thinking is that
convection that has recently developed in southeast Colorado should
expand and eventually accelerate southeast as an MCS with wind and
hail the main threat. The more difficult part of the forecast is
further south along sharpening boundary. 19z sounding has been
launched and a mesoscale discussion talking about this observation
will be written and sent shortly. Convection should move east of the
area after midnight with only low chances lingering in post-frontal
northeasterly flow beneath rising mid-level heights.

BRB

Long Term...Tuesday through Sunday night...A slow moving upper level
low will dig down into the desert southwest on Tuesday, becoming an
open trough on Wednesday and moving across the combined Panhandles on
Thursday. The prior passage of a cold front will keep the area under
cold air advection, with high temperatures on Tuesday through
Thursday expected to be about 20 to 25 degrees below normal for this
time of year. Overcast skies on all days with overrunning moisture
flow into the area will help keep a lid on instability on Tuesday,
though the passage of the cold core low on Wednesday and Thursday may
bring a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms with shower
activity. At this time, concern for severe weather is limited during
this period.

A ridge of high pressure will move over the combined Panhandles and
bring a brief respite from shower and thunderstorm activity on
Friday. Skies should clear around midday Friday, with high
temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s areawide.
A long wave trough with associated upper low will push across the
Great Basin during the weekend. An approaching cold front on Saturday
will once again bring low level moisture advection to the region,
bringing the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday. Progression of
this system may be slow enough that a chance for thunderstorm
activity may persist through Sunday night. Based on the progged setup
of this system, there is some indication that a dry line could set up
in eastern New Mexico and far western portions of the combined
Panhandles Saturday and Sunday. Assessing instability parameters,
there is potential for 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 0-6 km bulk
shear being a limiting factor as present guidance only shows 20-30
kts. We will continue to monitor the development of this pattern, as
this will be when the next chance of strong to severe weather may
exist.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-171700-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH OF GOODNIGHT NORTHEAST TO
SHAMROCK. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND
TORNADOES. STORM DIRECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT GROUPS RECOMMENDED FOR ACTIVATION IF THEY HAVE NOT
ALREADY DONE SO. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             5 WSW PANHANDLE         35.31N 101.45W
05/16/2016  E1.75 INCH       CARSON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WAS FOUND ALONG US
            HIGHWAY 60 NEAR COUNTY ROAD J SOUTHWEST OF PANHANDLE.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600346

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     HAIL             8 NNE CLAUDE            35.21N 101.30W
05/16/2016  M1.25 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WAS ACCUMULATING ON
            ROADWAYS ALONG WITH STANDING WATER 6 MILES E OF CONWAY
            NEAR INTERSTATE 40.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600347

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1038 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHEELER                 35.44N 100.28W
05/16/2016  M65 MPH          WHEELER            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED BY HANDHELD WIND DEVICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600348

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     TORNADO          5 SE CANADIAN           35.86N 100.32W
05/16/2016                   HEMPHILL           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED IN GENE HOWE WMA WITH A
            REPORTED TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600349

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HAIL             4 WNW GOODNIGHT         35.06N 101.24W
05/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS FALLING NORTHWEST OF GOODNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600350

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     TORNADO          5 E CANADIAN            35.91N 100.29W
05/16/2016                   HEMPHILL           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED IN GENE HOWE WMA WITH A
            REPORTED TORNADO. CORRECTED LOCATION OF REPORT.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600349

FENNER