Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Amarillo, TX

235 
WWUS54 KAMA 170019
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
719 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

TXC341-421-170100-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-160517T0100Z/
MOORE TX-SHERMAN TX-
719 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MOORE AND SOUTHERN SHERMAN COUNTIES...

AT 718 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CACTUS...OR 12
MILES NORTH OF DUMAS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
         CACTUS. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. HAIL MAY ACCUMULATE ON 
         ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CACTUS AND SUNRAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3616 10216 3619 10162 3589 10162 3599 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 276DEG 32KT 3604 10195 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

.Aviation...00z tafs

Flying conditions will degrade and remain poor overnight behind a
cold front that is knocking on the door. Thunderstorms will affect
KDHT and KGUY over the next few hours but KAMA should remain tstorm-
free...barely. Winds will be fairly staunch out of the NE through
most of the period. Cigs will drop to LIFR overnight and slowly
struggle through the day Tuesday to make it back to MVFR by the
afternoon.

Simpson
&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 609 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

..Tornado Watch 177 in effect for the northwestern Texas Panhandle
through 10 PM CDT tonight...

Update...Severe Thunderstorms with a history of producing tornadoes
are located in Dallam County in the northwest Texas Panhandle.
Favorable mesoscale environment in place ahead of these storms have
prompted an issuance of Tornado Watch 177 for the northwestern Texas
Panhandle counties through 10 PM CDT tonight. All residents in the
area should have an ability to receive alerts as these storms
continue to move east to southeast at 35 MPH.

Bieda

Prev Discussion... /Issued 332 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

Mesoscale Update...19z special sounding analysis and update...

A severe thunderstorm was located in Union County in ne NM and this
storm is meandering ESE. This storm/other storms will likely grow
upscale into a severe cluster that will move ese across the northern
half of the Panhandles with hail to golf balls and damaging winds the
greatest threats. This re-affirms the scenario discussed in the 1235
PM mesoscale AFD.

An interesting and potentially concerning boundary has formed and can
be analyzed from Quitaque-Silverton-Happy-Umbarger-Vega-Romero. This
baroclinic zone is a result of the very stable airmass (66F at KAMA)
over much of the ern half of the TX Panhandle meeting with sfc
temps in the 80s in the sw TX Panhandle (83F at Hereford). The 19z
KAMA sounding modified for conditions along the boundary results in a
narrow corridor of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in a more favorably sheared
environment than that of the nrn Panhandles. While convective
initiation in this area is much more conditional and uncertain, IF
(again a big if) a supercell was to form on or encounter this
boundary, the conceptual model for low level mesocyclogenesis along a
boundary may be met in a classic way. The cool side of this nearly
stationary boundary is modifying thermodynamically and Bunker's
right moving storm motion would result in mostly streamwise ingestion
of horizontal vorticity and a reasonably long residence time with the
potential for a storm to ride the boundary. Think that the overall
chance of a supercell forming on or encountering this boundary is
low, but it is an area that will be watched closely through the
evening, especially given that this corridor includes a population of
about 250,000 people.

Outside of the narrow corridor along and 30 miles to the ne of the
boundary, the tornado threat looks less.

Simpson/Beat

Short Term...Today and Tonight...See mesoscale update above for
details on severe thunderstorm potential. Current thinking is that
convection that has recently developed in southeast Colorado should
expand and eventually accelerate southeast as an MCS with wind and
hail the main threat. The more difficult part of the forecast is
further south along sharpening boundary. 19z sounding has been
launched and a mesoscale discussion talking about this observation
will be written and sent shortly. Convection should move east of the
area after midnight with only low chances lingering in post-frontal
northeasterly flow beneath rising mid-level heights.

BRB

Long Term...Tuesday through Sunday night...A slow moving upper level
low will dig down into the desert southwest on Tuesday, becoming an
open trough on Wednesday and moving across the combined Panhandles on
Thursday. The prior passage of a cold front will keep the area under
cold air advection, with high temperatures on Tuesday through
Thursday expected to be about 20 to 25 degrees below normal for this
time of year. Overcast skies on all days with overrunning moisture
flow into the area will help keep a lid on instability on Tuesday,
though the passage of the cold core low on Wednesday and Thursday may
bring a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms with shower
activity. At this time, concern for severe weather is limited during
this period.

A ridge of high pressure will move over the combined Panhandles and
bring a brief respite from shower and thunderstorm activity on
Friday. Skies should clear around midday Friday, with high
temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s areawide.
A long wave trough with associated upper low will push across the
Great Basin during the weekend. An approaching cold front on Saturday
will once again bring low level moisture advection to the region,
bringing the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday. Progression of
this system may be slow enough that a chance for thunderstorm
activity may persist through Sunday night. Based on the progged setup
of this system, there is some indication that a dry line could set up
in eastern New Mexico and far western portions of the combined
Panhandles Saturday and Sunday. Assessing instability parameters,
there is potential for 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 0-6 km bulk
shear being a limiting factor as present guidance only shows 20-30
kts. We will continue to monitor the development of this pattern, as
this will be when the next chance of strong to severe weather may
exist.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

9/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-171115-CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-
HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-
HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-
ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-603 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
ARE LOCATED IN DALLAM COUNTY OVER THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY AND ALL STORMS THAT
FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL BRING A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT GROUPS RECOMMENDED FOR ACTIVATION IF THEY HAVE NOT
ALREADY DONE SO. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             STRATFORD               36.34N 102.07W
05/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600302

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             STRATFORD               36.34N 102.07W
05/16/2016  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN STRATFORD AS STORM
            MOVED THROUGH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600303

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             16 E STRATFORD          36.34N 101.79W
05/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600304

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             6 SW DALHART            36.00N 102.59W
05/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600305

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
657 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             11 S TEXHOMA            36.35N 101.79W
05/16/2016  M1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600306

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             3 WSW DALHART           36.05N 102.56W
05/16/2016  M1.25 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

            MEASURED WITH A RULER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600307

JMG