Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves slowly south into the Carolinas by Wednesday
where it will dissipate later in the week. High pressure builds over
the Mid Atlantic States and then settles over the Southeast late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front extended east to west across central Virginia
Tuesday afternoon. A short wave trough over the upper Ohio Valley
was deepening as it moves to the southeast. High pressure situated
in Michigan was building to the southeast behind the aforementioned
cold front.

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms covering most of our CWA except areas toward the
coast. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for most of out
Virginia counties except near the coast through 9 PM EDT. The main
threat is for damaging winds with a minimal for large hail.

Scattered thunderstorms were developing over the Piedmont Tuesday
afternoon and are expected to increase to the southeast this
evening. Steep lapse rates aided by a strong short wave trough along
with various boundaries will contribute to the severe potential.
CAPEs of 2 to 3 K J/Kg are indicated in portions of the CWA and
especially northeast North Carolina. Shear and forcing is limited and
the severe threat may remain unorganized.

POPs due to thunderstorms will be likely in the I95 Corridor
including Metro Richmond from 5 to 8 PM and then move southeast into
Hampton Roads and most of northeast North Carolina after 8 PM. The
area of thunderstorms will diminish or move out of the CWA shortly
after Midnight.

NAM12 suggests some upper level impulses and left over instability
warranting low chance POPs for several hours behind the main area of
thunderstorms.  through the pre-dawn hours.

Patchy fog is forecast during the predawn hours over inland portions
of Virginia and North Carolina with most visbilities dropping to 1
to 3 miles with local areas possibly lowering below a mile.
Visibilities improve by around 8 AM. Low temperatures are expected to
be around 70 degrees Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Trough axis pushes offshore Wednesday as the upper level ridge
amplifies over the nation's mid section. Surface high pressure
builds into New England and southward into our region. There is
enough guidance to support chance POPs over far southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina with slight chance POPs across eastern
Virginia and the lower Eastern Shore. POPs decrease after 18z.
Temperatures and dew points will be a bit lower making for a more
comfortable day. Highs range from the mid to upper 80s. Northeast
winds will keep areas near the coast closer to 80 degrees.

Most locations will have a mainly clear sky Wednesday night. Lows
range from the mid to upper 60s inland to lower 70s southeast.

Some of the models suggest isolated precipitation Thursday through
Friday but there's not enough confidence to include any in the
forecast. Surface high pressure slides offshore Thursday as the
upper level ridge builds eastward. Plenty of sunshine will
support highs in the upper 80's to around 90.

As we get toward Friday...Bermuda high pressure begins to dominate.
Upper level ridging increases its influence over the area. This
results in much higher temperatures. Lows Thursday night range from
70 to 75. High temperatures Friday are forecast to reach 90 to 95.
Heat indices may reach just over 100 at some locations over inland
Virginia east of Interstate 95.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period will feature mainly dry conditions and above normal
temps. For Friday night/Saturday, dry wx expected as surface high
pressure stays off the se coast and a broad upper-level ridge slides
east into the eastern Conus. Cannot rule out an aftn/eveng
shra/tstm, but chance for rain is less than 20%. Very similar
conditions for Sun with a weak thermal trough over the Mid Atlc and
weak zonal flow aloft. Expect hi temps in the mid/upr 90s both days,
and with dewpoints in the lo/mid 70s, aftn heat indices will reach
near 105F (heat advsry criteria).

Temps a bit lower for Mon/Tue...but still hot with highs in the 90s.
Mainly climatological PoPs (20-30%) in the aftn/eveng.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions thus far this afternoon with sct-bkn
ceilings developing between 4-5 kft. Convection was developing on
the east side of the mountains and across the western piedmont
moving southeast. Forcing from an upper level wave will support
the development of more storms as the system progresses east.
This would place showers and storms into RIC around 22z-01z. Have
placed a tempo group in the RIC TAF. Storms will result in brief
periods of IFR visbilities and gusty winds of 25-35 kt. For now it
appears the best chances for showers and storms remains south of
SBY, so have left mention out of the SBY TAF for now.

The forcing pushes southeast to PHF and ORF from 23z-02z with
showers and storms possible at both location along with brief
periods of IFR visibilities and gusts winds similar to RIC. ECG
will experience the storms a little later...mainly after 00z. Due
to the upper level support the storms should be able to sustain
themselves into northeast NC and may not weaken much with sunset.

some lingering showers/tstms are possible over northeast NC after
06Z. In the wake of the showers there is the the potential for
patchy fog and/or low clouds through 12Z/Wed with some IFR
possible at all TAF sites. Confidence is low and have held off on
putting IFR conditions in the TAFS, but IFR conditions are
possible during the early morning hours Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Southern areas may see widely scattered to isolated
afternoon tstms again Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions
are expected for the latter half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary over the next several days. Latest sfc
analysis shows hi pressure off the se coast with a weak frontal
boundary dropping thru the Mid Atlc. With the frnt in the vicinity,
winds remain variable and under 10 kt this aftn/eveng. As the frnt
drops to the south tonight, winds will bcm northeasterly and up to
10-15 kt by Wed morng. Winds then transition to the southeast Thu
then south Fri. Waves over the Bay thru the period will be 1-2 ft,
with seas over coastal waters 2-3 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ075>078-095-097>100-202015-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
403 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>090-092-093-096-509>525-202015-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-SUFFOLK-
WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-
WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-
HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
403 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LSA

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