Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

198 
WWAK47 PAJK 011808
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
908 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016


AKZ018-020200-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161201T1800Z/
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.161202T0900Z-161203T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
908 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS EXPIRED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY...


* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS.

* SNOW...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS REST OF THE DAY BUT
  WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER 8 TO 14
  INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...
  SNOW RE-DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST
  SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
  FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW 
  ACCUMULATES ON THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME REDUCED AT 
  TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.


&&

$$

AKZ019-020200-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-161201T1800Z/
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.161202T0900Z-161203T0300Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
908 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING HAS EXPIRED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY...


* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER 
  BRIDGE. 

* SNOW...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL RE-
  INTENSIFY TONIGHT. ANOTHER 9 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
  AMOUNTS NEAR PLEASANT CAMP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 1 TO 2
  INCHES IN HAINES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER BRIDGE.
  SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
  OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
  WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW 
  ACCUMULATES ON THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME REDUCED AT 
  TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.


&&

$$

780 
WWAK47 PAJK 020042
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

AKZ019-021245-
/O.EXT.PAJK.WS.W.0007.161202T0900Z-161202T2100Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER 
  BRIDGE. 

* SNOW...8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR
  PLEASANT CAMP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW 
  ACCUMULATES ON THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME REDUCED AT 
  TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-021245-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.161202T0900Z-161203T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS.

* SNOW...12 TO 18 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW 
  ACCUMULATES ON THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME REDUCED AT 
  TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$

060 
WWAK47 PAJK 020752
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1052 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016


AKZ019-021600-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.161202T0900Z-161202T2100Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1052 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER 
  BRIDGE. 

* SNOW...8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR 
  PLEASANT CAMP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW 
  ACCUMULATES ON THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME REDUCED AT 
  TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-021600-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.161202T0900Z-161203T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1052 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS.

* SNOW...12 TO 18 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW 
  ACCUMULATES ON THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME REDUCED AT 
  TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.



&&

$$

162 
WWAK47 PAJK 021525
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
625 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

AKZ018-022300-
/O.EXT.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-161203T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
625 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 400 FEET.

* SNOW...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION 12 TO 18 INCHES...GREATEST
  AMOUNTS NEAR WHITE PASS.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL RATES WILL EASE SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
  THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AGAIN IN THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW ACCUMULATES ON
  THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW
  AND BLOWING SNOW. SLICK CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE RAIN
  CHANGES TO SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 2 PM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019-022100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-161202T2100Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
625 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER 
  BRIDGE. 

* SNOW...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED WITH
  HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW THIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SHOWERY
  THROUGH MID DAY WITH SNOWFALL RATES DIMINISHING. SNOW SHOWERS
  WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT AS THE SNOW ACCUMULATES ON
  THE ROAD. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW.
  SLICK CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW NEAR THE
  CHILKAT RIVER BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

747 
WWAK47 PAJK 021754
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
854 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

AKZ019-021900-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-161202T2100Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
854 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

WET SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR PLEASANT CAMP. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

AKZ018-021900-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-161203T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
854 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITE PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 PM AKST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...A strong occluded front will move E to the outer
coast by late tonight, then be through SE AK by late thu morning.
A strong low will develop and move NE toward the S-central gulf
by late Thu afternoon. Used blend of the previous forecast with
the 06z ARW and 12z GFS to handle things through Thu, with SREF
incorporated for POPs.

Main forecast concerns through Thu afternoon will be winds, precip
potential, potential for significant snow over the far N, and TSTM
chances. Ahead of the occluded front, winds will increase to
35-45 kt over the E gulf and a good part of SE AK tonight. Have
put out strong wind headlines for most of the area tonight, with
zone 25 continuing into early Thu morning. After front moves
through, winds will drop off some in most areas, but increase over
the far N channels as S pressure gradient increases. Then, winds
will increase again to gale force over the far S gulf as the
strong low moves closer to them.

Am expecting precip area wide as front moves through the area.
Will see precip reach the outer coast by 06z, with inner channels
seeing precip develop by 11z. After the front moves through,
precip will become showery. Steadier rain will increase again late
in the day over the SW half of the area ahead of the strong low.
Most of the area will see ptype as rain through Thu, but snow is
expected over the far N including around White Pass, W of the
Chilkat River Bridge, and near Hyder. Snowfall could be heavy near
White Pass late tonight and think they will see 5 to 8 inches
there, so have issued winter storm warning for the White Pass
area from 09-18z Thu. W of the Chilkat River Bridge, snowfall of 3
to 5 inches is likely, so issued a winter weather advisory for
them for 09-18z Thu. Hyder may see 1 to 3 inches of snow through
Thu morning.

TSTM potential will increase overnight over the S-central gulf,
then move to the NE gulf Thu as upper trof moves through. Put in
slight chance TSTMS to handle this. The threat will decrease from
the S Thu as warmer air moves in aloft ahead of the strong low.

.LONG TERM...The forecast for Thursday night and Friday hinges
on the track and strength of storm force low moving into the
northeast gulf Friday morning. Confidence is high that storm force
easterlies will spread ahead of a front as it plows north across
the gulf. We have since fine-tuned the winds in the inside
passages based on low-level jet and general forecast track. New
NAM and GFS guidance suggests a jog to the southeast and east
which would limit winds through the far northern Interior
Panhandle like Haines and Skagway but strengthen winds through the
north central panhandle such as Hoonah and Juneau. But this can be
evaluated more closely as time proceeds. Confidence is still
moderate for high wind gusts around 60 mph for the Southeast Gulf
Coast and Baranof Island. The Southern Inner Channels also look
good for this event, but we think the greatest chance of wind will
rest on the eastern shores of Prince of Wales Island rather than
Ketchikan and Annette. The High Wind Watch stands unaltered.

NAEFS Ensembles rate the integrated water vapor transport as
around 3 standard deviations above normal with this storm. Heavy
rain bands will likely strike across the eastern gulf coast
Thursday night into Friday. Based on the track, we think there
will be enough cold air stuck in the higher elevations of the
highways for potentially up to around 1 foot plus of snow
Thursday night into Friday. We even are increasingly confident
that northwesterly winds through the Chilkat may help preserve the
cold air dome through Haines for much of the period. But
temperatures will be marginal at sea level.

This system moves inland Saturday and weak onshore flow but
cooling temperatures will support scattered rain and snow showers
through the early weekend. We expect cold temperatures and mainly
dry conditions through early next week with the possibility of a
low ushering a potential overrunning snow event for late next
week. However, this is very early to count in at this point
indeed.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ024-026-028.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday
     night for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Thursday for
     AKZ022-023-027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Thursday morning
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ017-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST
     Thursday for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013.
&&

RWT/JWA

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