Small Craft Advisory 751, NWS Juneau, AK

234 
FZAK53 PAJK 020031
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-021845-
YAKUTAT BAY-
331 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
LATE. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
11 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 2 FT OR LESS EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. S SWELL.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT EAST SIDE OF
THE BAY. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS
EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 PM AKST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...A strong occluded front will move E to the outer
coast by late tonight, then be through SE AK by late thu morning.
A strong low will develop and move NE toward the S-central gulf
by late Thu afternoon. Used blend of the previous forecast with
the 06z ARW and 12z GFS to handle things through Thu, with SREF
incorporated for POPs.

Main forecast concerns through Thu afternoon will be winds, precip
potential, potential for significant snow over the far N, and TSTM
chances. Ahead of the occluded front, winds will increase to
35-45 kt over the E gulf and a good part of SE AK tonight. Have
put out strong wind headlines for most of the area tonight, with
zone 25 continuing into early Thu morning. After front moves
through, winds will drop off some in most areas, but increase over
the far N channels as S pressure gradient increases. Then, winds
will increase again to gale force over the far S gulf as the
strong low moves closer to them.

Am expecting precip area wide as front moves through the area.
Will see precip reach the outer coast by 06z, with inner channels
seeing precip develop by 11z. After the front moves through,
precip will become showery. Steadier rain will increase again late
in the day over the SW half of the area ahead of the strong low.
Most of the area will see ptype as rain through Thu, but snow is
expected over the far N including around White Pass, W of the
Chilkat River Bridge, and near Hyder. Snowfall could be heavy near
White Pass late tonight and think they will see 5 to 8 inches
there, so have issued winter storm warning for the White Pass
area from 09-18z Thu. W of the Chilkat River Bridge, snowfall of 3
to 5 inches is likely, so issued a winter weather advisory for
them for 09-18z Thu. Hyder may see 1 to 3 inches of snow through
Thu morning.

TSTM potential will increase overnight over the S-central gulf,
then move to the NE gulf Thu as upper trof moves through. Put in
slight chance TSTMS to handle this. The threat will decrease from
the S Thu as warmer air moves in aloft ahead of the strong low.

.LONG TERM...The forecast for Thursday night and Friday hinges
on the track and strength of storm force low moving into the
northeast gulf Friday morning. Confidence is high that storm force
easterlies will spread ahead of a front as it plows north across
the gulf. We have since fine-tuned the winds in the inside
passages based on low-level jet and general forecast track. New
NAM and GFS guidance suggests a jog to the southeast and east
which would limit winds through the far northern Interior
Panhandle like Haines and Skagway but strengthen winds through the
north central panhandle such as Hoonah and Juneau. But this can be
evaluated more closely as time proceeds. Confidence is still
moderate for high wind gusts around 60 mph for the Southeast Gulf
Coast and Baranof Island. The Southern Inner Channels also look
good for this event, but we think the greatest chance of wind will
rest on the eastern shores of Prince of Wales Island rather than
Ketchikan and Annette. The High Wind Watch stands unaltered.

NAEFS Ensembles rate the integrated water vapor transport as
around 3 standard deviations above normal with this storm. Heavy
rain bands will likely strike across the eastern gulf coast
Thursday night into Friday. Based on the track, we think there
will be enough cold air stuck in the higher elevations of the
highways for potentially up to around 1 foot plus of snow
Thursday night into Friday. We even are increasingly confident
that northwesterly winds through the Chilkat may help preserve the
cold air dome through Haines for much of the period. But
temperatures will be marginal at sea level.

This system moves inland Saturday and weak onshore flow but
cooling temperatures will support scattered rain and snow showers
through the early weekend. We expect cold temperatures and mainly
dry conditions through early next week with the possibility of a
low ushering a potential overrunning snow event for late next
week. However, this is very early to count in at this point
indeed.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ024-026-028.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday
     night for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Thursday for
     AKZ022-023-027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Thursday morning
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ017-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST
     Thursday for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013.
&&

RWT/JWA

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