Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

246 
WWAK47 PAJK 042005
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1105 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

AKZ029-050300-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.160204T2100Z-160205T1400Z/
/O.EXB.PAJK.WS.W.0003.160204T2100Z-160205T1400Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
1105 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...HYDER

* SNOW...10 TO 14 INCHES

* TIMING...SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
  TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
  AFFECT AVIATION TRAFFIC IN THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019-050300-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T0300Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1105 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...HAINES AND CHILKAT HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE BEFORE
  DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE SNOW AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-050300-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160205T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1105 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY

* SNOW...4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR WHITE PASS

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW AND REDUCED
  VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

929 
WWAK47 PAJK 050059
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

AKZ019-050200-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T0300Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
359 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOW WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

AKZ018-050200-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160205T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
359 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOW WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.


$$

AKZ029-050900-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1400Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
359 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...HYDER

* SNOW...10 TO 14 INCHES

* TIMING...SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEFORE
  DIMINISHING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL 
  AFFECT AVIATION TRAFFIC IN THE AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

369 
WWAK47 PAJK 050834
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1134 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

AKZ029-051400-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1400Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
1134 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...HYDER

* SNOW...10 TO 14 INCHES

* TIMING...SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY TONIGHT
  BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL 
  AFFECT AVIATION TRAFFIC IN THE AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

155 
WWAK47 PAJK 051356
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
456 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

AKZ029-051500-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1400Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
456 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AROUND HYDER WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. 10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW WAS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THIS
EVENT. A WEB CAMERA NEAR HYDER WAS SHOWING MODERATE SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT. 

AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS AND TEMPERATURES WARM
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF HAVE STARTED TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSING FRONT. FOR THE PANHANDLE WIND GUSTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND TERRAIN GAPS REACHED UP TO 40 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. A SECOND LOW MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
INTERACT WITH THE KODIAK LOW AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AK GULF. THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL BE BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FRONT WITH GULF WINDS REACHING STORM
FORCE UNDER DEVELOPING BARRIER JET IN THE NORTHERN GULF. INNER
CHANNEL WINDS, ESPECIALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL PICK
UP TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PANHANDLE
WIND GUST WILL PICK UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVERLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT MORE OUTFLOW
WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A SECOND
WAVES MOVES UP DIXON ENTRANCE WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WITH THE WEDNESDAY FRONT NOT AS HEAVY AS EXPECTED SINCE THE
FRONT SHEARED APART BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. STILL COLD OVERCAST
WINTER DAY WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE ALSO STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AS
WINDS STAYED NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT
PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. BIT MORE SHOWERY REGIME BETWEEN FRONTS SO MAY SEE SOME
CLOUD BREAKS AND POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION BUT AS THE SECOND FRONT
SHOULD BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FOR
THURSDAY THE FRONT HAS BETTER FETCH OF TOPICAL MOISTURE SO GETTING
SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. STILL GETTING SHOW
FOR HYDER, HAINES AND SKAGWAY. AS THE NORTH WILL NOT GET THE BRUNT
OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING SNOW ACCUMULATION ONLY
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE, AND FOR HYDER DUE TO EXPECT WARMING SNOW
ACCUMULATION ONLY AROUND 4 INCHES EXPECTED.

MODEL STILL CONSISTENT HANDLING THESE SYSTEMS AND HAVE SHOWN ONLY
MINOR VARIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
PRESSURE, WINDS AND POPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DID NOT GET AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO THE DELAYED SHIFT IN WINDS SO CURRENT TEMPS ARE
ALREADY AT OVERNIGHT LOWS. TRICKIEST PART IS STILL SNOW LEVEL AND
QPF AMOUNTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL BE A LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WIND.

WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A 55-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS
WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO EXPECT
WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
TRANSITION FLOW TO MORE OF AN OFFSHORE AND DRIER REGIME. STILL
KEPT 20-30% POP BUT EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE MAINLY DRY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT
SPEED OF THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS MOVING THE FRONT NORTHWARD
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. BASED UPON NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OPTED TO USE THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS
THIS WILL INHIBIT PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER WIND MAKER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND STRONG
WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. ADDITIONAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT AND TAPPING
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO MONDAY. PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER SO HARD
TO GET INTO DETAILS AT THIS POINT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THERE FOR LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ALSO EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AS WELL AS THE HYDER
AREA INITIALLY. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT IS STILL POISED TO MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW
LEVELS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY.

CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF THROUGH DAY 4 THEN
INCORPORATED THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025-027-
     028.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025.
     STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031-032-034-053.
&&

PRB/TPS

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