Storm Warning 26, NWS Juneau, AK

564 
FZAK52 PAJK 041743 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050715-
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT IN THE GULF WILL CROSS OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-050715-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050715-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050715-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050715-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050715-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
405 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

957 
FZAK52 PAJK 050016
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-051400-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-051400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-051400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18
FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-051400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. SW SWELL.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-051400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-051400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARD KODIAK. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF HAVE STARTED TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSING FRONT. FOR THE PANHANDLE WIND GUSTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND TERRAIN GAPS REACHED UP TO 40 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. A SECOND LOW MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
INTERACT WITH THE KODIAK LOW AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AK GULF. THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL BE BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FRONT WITH GULF WINDS REACHING STORM
FORCE UNDER DEVELOPING BARRIER JET IN THE NORTHERN GULF. INNER
CHANNEL WINDS, ESPECIALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL PICK
UP TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PANHANDLE
WIND GUST WILL PICK UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVERLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT MORE OUTFLOW
WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A SECOND
WAVES MOVES UP DIXON ENTRANCE WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WITH THE WEDNESDAY FRONT NOT AS HEAVY AS EXPECTED SINCE THE
FRONT SHEARED APART BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. STILL COLD OVERCAST
WINTER DAY WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE ALSO STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AS
WINDS STAYED NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT
PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. BIT MORE SHOWERY REGIME BETWEEN FRONTS SO MAY SEE SOME
CLOUD BREAKS AND POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION BUT AS THE SECOND FRONT
SHOULD BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FOR
THURSDAY THE FRONT HAS BETTER FETCH OF TOPICAL MOISTURE SO GETTING
SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. STILL GETTING SHOW
FOR HYDER, HAINES AND SKAGWAY. AS THE NORTH WILL NOT GET THE BRUNT
OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING SNOW ACCUMULATION ONLY
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE, AND FOR HYDER DUE TO EXPECT WARMING SNOW
ACCUMULATION ONLY AROUND 4 INCHES EXPECTED.

MODEL STILL CONSISTENT HANDLING THESE SYSTEMS AND HAVE SHOWN ONLY
MINOR VARIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
PRESSURE, WINDS AND POPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DID NOT GET AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO THE DELAYED SHIFT IN WINDS SO CURRENT TEMPS ARE
ALREADY AT OVERNIGHT LOWS. TRICKIEST PART IS STILL SNOW LEVEL AND
QPF AMOUNTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL BE A LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WIND.

WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A 55-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS
WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO EXPECT
WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
TRANSITION FLOW TO MORE OF AN OFFSHORE AND DRIER REGIME. STILL
KEPT 20-30% POP BUT EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE MAINLY DRY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT
SPEED OF THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS MOVING THE FRONT NORTHWARD
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. BASED UPON NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OPTED TO USE THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS
THIS WILL INHIBIT PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER WIND MAKER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND STRONG
WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. ADDITIONAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT AND TAPPING
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO MONDAY. PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER SO HARD
TO GET INTO DETAILS AT THIS POINT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THERE FOR LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ALSO EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AS WELL AS THE HYDER
AREA INITIALLY. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT IS STILL POISED TO MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW
LEVELS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY.

CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF THROUGH DAY 4 THEN
INCORPORATED THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025-027-
     028.
     STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025.
     STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031-032-034-053.
&&

PRB/TPS

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