Storm Warning 66, NWS Juneau, AK

582 
FZAK52 PAJK 181300
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190100-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.   

$$

PKZ041-190100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-190100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
MORNING. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-190100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
SHIFTING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-190100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-190100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 50 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...SW GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

405 
FZAK52 PAJK 182342
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-191400-
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH WIND
SHIFTING TO THE SW. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ041-191400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 25 FT. SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-191400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-191400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24
FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-191400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 27 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-191400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
240 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
INCREASING TO SW 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING 
TO 24 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...An occluded front will move across most of SE AK
tonight but get hung up over the S area. A stronger occluded
front will move NE into the E gulf Sun morning, then move onshore
SE AK Sun afternoon. Used a 12z NAM/GFS blend to handle tonight,
then pretty much kept pressures as is for Sun.

Main forecast concerns will timing ptype transition to rain,
snowfall, and winds. At this point the rain/snow line is near a
PAOH-PAFE-PAKT line. Think much of the area currently getting snow
near sea level will change to rain this evening as warmer air
moves in along and behind the first occluded front. The main
exception to this will be near Hyder where a deeper cold airmass
will hang on into Sun. Precip should be mainly rain near sea level
with Sun system except near Hyder where it should continue to be
snow.

Looks like another 1 to 3 inches of snow near sea level over the
NE part of the area tonight. Hyder looks like they will get fairly
heavy snow tonight and Sun with up to 18 inches likely by late
Sun afternoon. Keeping winter storm warning going as is for Hyder.
Higher elevations over the N will probably see several inches of
snow Sun with next front. They currently have a winter weather
advy for first front, and may need another advy with the second
front at higher elevations of zones 18 and 19 Sun. However, did
not want to have 2 advys going on at the same time to avoid
confusion.

Winds will pick up to SCA over the N this evening as occluded
front passes through and increasing S pressure gradient develops.
Central and S inner channels will generally remain around SCA
levels tonight, although wind could drop below that level during
the overnight hours across the central area. Then with stronger
front moving in Sun, am expecting much of the inner channels to
see SCA to gale force winds by the afternoon. The far N will
probably drop below SCA levels Sun as pressure gradient becomes
more parallel to them. Have added in a couple of strong wind
headlines for land, with zones 25 through 28 seeing strong wind
especially Sun afternoon. Over the gulf, winds ahead of the first
front will remain SCA to min gale for the SE half of the gulf
tonight. Then winds over entire gulf should get to at least gale
force Sun as stronger occluded front moves in. The far N gulf will
likely reach storm force by early Sun afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Active weather pattern continues through mid week
with onshore flow and southerly winds through the inside waters.
Sunday's front discussed above will move through in the evening
with a transition to showers and winds shifting to the SW. Showers
will continue through Monday and some places will get cold enough
for snow to mix back in Sunday night. Will need to watch for
thunderstorm potential over the gulf, but that has been left out
for now.

Another front moves across the area Monday evening with another
round of gusty winds. This is followed by another system for
Tuesday afternoon/evening with little break in between. There are
hints of longer breaks between systems for the 2nd half of the
week and cooler temperatures for some snow. But forecast
confidence is lower as the week goes on.

Left much of the short/mid range forecast in place then used
mainly the 12z ECMWF/GFS followed by WPC guidance. Nudged
temperatures down slightly through the end of the week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ026-028.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ025-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST
     Sunday night for AKZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-032-053.
&&

RWT/Ferrin

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