Gale Warning 332, NWS Juneau, AK

669 
FZAK67 PAJK 181251
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-190100-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.   

$$

PKZ310-190100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...An occluded front will move across most of SE AK
tonight but get hung up over the S area. A stronger occluded
front will move NE into the E gulf Sun morning, then move onshore
SE AK Sun afternoon. Used a 12z NAM/GFS blend to handle tonight,
then pretty much kept pressures as is for Sun.

Main forecast concerns will timing ptype transition to rain,
snowfall, and winds. At this point the rain/snow line is near a
PAOH-PAFE-PAKT line. Think much of the area currently getting snow
near sea level will change to rain this evening as warmer air
moves in along and behind the first occluded front. The main
exception to this will be near Hyder where a deeper cold airmass
will hang on into Sun. Precip should be mainly rain near sea level
with Sun system except near Hyder where it should continue to be
snow.

Looks like another 1 to 3 inches of snow near sea level over the
NE part of the area tonight. Hyder looks like they will get fairly
heavy snow tonight and Sun with up to 18 inches likely by late
Sun afternoon. Keeping winter storm warning going as is for Hyder.
Higher elevations over the N will probably see several inches of
snow Sun with next front. They currently have a winter weather
advy for first front, and may need another advy with the second
front at higher elevations of zones 18 and 19 Sun. However, did
not want to have 2 advys going on at the same time to avoid
confusion.

Winds will pick up to SCA over the N this evening as occluded
front passes through and increasing S pressure gradient develops.
Central and S inner channels will generally remain around SCA
levels tonight, although wind could drop below that level during
the overnight hours across the central area. Then with stronger
front moving in Sun, am expecting much of the inner channels to
see SCA to gale force winds by the afternoon. The far N will
probably drop below SCA levels Sun as pressure gradient becomes
more parallel to them. Have added in a couple of strong wind
headlines for land, with zones 25 through 28 seeing strong wind
especially Sun afternoon. Over the gulf, winds ahead of the first
front will remain SCA to min gale for the SE half of the gulf
tonight. Then winds over entire gulf should get to at least gale
force Sun as stronger occluded front moves in. The far N gulf will
likely reach storm force by early Sun afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Active weather pattern continues through mid week
with onshore flow and southerly winds through the inside waters.
Sunday's front discussed above will move through in the evening
with a transition to showers and winds shifting to the SW. Showers
will continue through Monday and some places will get cold enough
for snow to mix back in Sunday night. Will need to watch for
thunderstorm potential over the gulf, but that has been left out
for now.

Another front moves across the area Monday evening with another
round of gusty winds. This is followed by another system for
Tuesday afternoon/evening with little break in between. There are
hints of longer breaks between systems for the 2nd half of the
week and cooler temperatures for some snow. But forecast
confidence is lower as the week goes on.

Left much of the short/mid range forecast in place then used
mainly the 12z ECMWF/GFS followed by WPC guidance. Nudged
temperatures down slightly through the end of the week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ026-028.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ025-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST
     Sunday night for AKZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-032-053.
&&

RWT/Ferrin

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