Storm Warning 31, NWS Juneau, AK

642 
FZAK52 PAJK 210032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE HIGH WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT SHIFTING W AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT
LATE. S SWELL.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT SHIFTING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO
19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. S SWELL.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
65 KT...EXCEPT 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO
25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT SHIFTING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE.
S SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 26
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT SHIFTING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 30 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT SHIFTING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 31 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

562 
FZAK52 PAJK 211226
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
BY MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 25 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT
BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SE SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
443 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS OBSERVED MOVING NNE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE WAVE APPROACHING THE NERN GULF COAST. ENHANCED ZONE OF
ASCENT IS YIELDING RAIN FROM ROUGHLY SITKA E TO PETERSBURG AND
POINTS S...WHILE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ARE FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE EXITS AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE LATER THIS
MORNING...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE WINDS WILL FLIP TO SLY OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE.

MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER INVOF THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. A DISTURBANCE LOCATED ALONG ITS
SRN PERIPHERY IS FORECAST TO BIFURCATE SLIGHTLY AS IT EJECTS NEWD
TOWARD THE GULF/NERN PAC TONIGHT. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM ROUGHLY THE NCNTRL
GULF TOWARD THE SCNTRL-SERN GULF...WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING TO ITS E. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN.

THIS SURFACE EVOLUTION...COMBINED WITH A 60-70 KT LOW-LEVEL SELY
JET WILL FAVOR STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS...FIRST FOR
MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52 EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN DEVELOPING
SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AS THE SECONDARY LOW
MATERIALIZES. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
YAKUTAT SE TO SITKA...WHILE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH 50 KT OF FLOW AT 500 M AGL WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS FOR THE OUTER COAST OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND.

DUE TO THE FRONT HANGING UP WELL W OF THE PANHANDLE...CNTRL AND
SRN AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
AFTER SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD
AKZ017 TONIGHT YIELDING TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FLUX AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS ENTRAINED FROM THE NERN PAC. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY W OF YAKUTAT.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS...WHILE WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE NAM. REMAINDER OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...FEW CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...DEEP UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN PAC WITH
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM THRU THE NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT WILL MOVE NW INTO THE N-CENTRAL
GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROFS WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
THE AREA MON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA THEN
SHIFT INTO WRN CANADA FOR TUE-WED. NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL
LIKELY STAY WELL SW OF THE AREA FOR MID-LATE WEEK...BUT MAY SEND
AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME IS BELOW AVERAGE.

FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE GENERALLY MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF
EXCEPTIONS. DID BUMP PRE-FRONTAL WINDS OVER THE ERN GULF TO STORM
FORCE FOR SUN GIVEN STRONG (60-70KT) 925 MB LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WIND BAND WILL BE NEAR
THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. OTHER MAIN
ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE TEMPS ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR SUN...WITH A
SLIGHTLY LESS BUMP FOR SUN NIGHT. WITH STRONG SELY FLOW...SHOULD
SEE DECENT MIXING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 40S MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS AROUND +1 TO +3C. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE AREAS GET NEAR 50 BEFORE ANY PRECIP
MOVES IN WITH OCCLUDED FRONT. DID SPEED UP MOVEMENT OF PRECIP A
LITTLE BIT AS FRONT SHOULD PUSH ONSHORE ONCE LOW PRESSURE WAVE
MOVES BY THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH THIS
FRONT...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SNOW NEAR HYDER SUN NIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE
WEAK TROFS WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE GULF COAST
AND NRN PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH MON NIGHT FOR
THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

LOOKS DRIER FOR TUE BUT THREAT FOR PRECIP MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS
TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TUE ONWARD DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ022-023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031-032-034-035-053.
&&

GARNER/RWT

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