Storm Warning 29, NWS Juneau, AK

647 
FZAK52 PAJK 201249
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF SATURDAY MORNING. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO
21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO
22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 24 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 31 FT SUBSIDING TO 29 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED EARLIER FROM JUNEAU SOUTH.
SNOW HAS CHANGED TO RAIN FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT. HAVE AROUND 1 INCH IN THE JUNEAU AREA FOR TONIGHT AND
ALSO TOMORROW MORNING. LOOKING FOR AROUND 2 INCHES IN HAINES AND
SKAGWAY ONCE THE PRECIP REACHES THAT FAR NORTH. IN HOONAH,
GUSTAVUS, HYDER AND TENAKEE SPRINGS, AM EXPECTING AROUND 1 INCH
FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS, OR WILL,
WARMED UP SURFACE TEMPS TO ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS RAIN. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WARM AIR WILL ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH
AS LYNN CANAL, LEAVING ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS
LOCATIONS WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

BY TOMORROW, THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS THE OUTER
COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A FACTOR FOR THIS SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WINDS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE. AS THE CURRENT LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHWEST, MARINE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL RE-ORGANIZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. GALE WILL SPREAD
NORTH OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES BY LATE MORNING AND HAVE A
STORM WARNING OUT FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ZONE 51.
INNER CHANNEL RESPONSES INCLUDE GALES FOR CLARENCE STRAIT,
SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND CROSS SOUND. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AND
ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST HAS PROMPTED THE
INCLUSION OF STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW FOR THE OUTER
COAST FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE SOUTH...PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS22 FOR UPDATES TO GULF WIND
DIRECTIONS. WIND SPEEDS FROM GFS22. POP AND QPF A BLEND OF
EXISTING GRIDS PLUS CURRENT CANADIAN WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM GFS40
AND ECMWF. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP USING GFS MOS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRICKY
FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE FRONTS AND WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THOSE
FRONTS. NEW MODELS RUNS VARY ON EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT BUT OVERALL ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR WINDY AND WET WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEGINS A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS...JUST BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TOWARDS KODIAK
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSING THE GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
EXISTENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A LOW MOVING
IN FORM THE WEST...THEY ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOW CENTER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE FRONT DESCRIBED THE IN
SHORT TERM MOVES NORTHWARD WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
WINDS INCREASE TO STORM FORCE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNDER AN 80 KT 850 MB LLJ. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
CONTINUE FOR ZONES 27 AND 23 AND DEVELOP FOR ZONE 22 AS THE JET
MOVES NORTH. AS THE DEVELOPING WAVE MOVES NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY PICK BACK UP TO STORM FORCE, BUT FOR NOW
HOLDING OFF WITH MAX GALES. INNER CHANNEL WINDS REMAIN AT MAX
SMALL CRAFT OR PICK UP TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT ADVANCES. THE
FRONT WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PANHANDLE. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
PARALLEL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AND MAY SHIFT
SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, OR THEY MAY JUST GO LIGHT. HIGHEST QPF
FROM THIS WAVE REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND AS TEMPS WARM AND SNOW
LEVEL RISE ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE ANY
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
PRECIP SHUTS OFF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

AS STATED BEFORE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW
MOVING UP TOWARDS KODIAK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS
THE GULF. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOCATION OF
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE GFS KEEP THE RIDGE AND LOW FURTHER WEST, THUS KEEPS
THE PANHANDLE IN DRY WEATHER LONGER. ECMWF MOVES THE LOW AND
FRONT EASTWARD FASTER WHILE THE GEM IS IN A MIDDLE GROUND. FOR
THIS TIME FRAME WENT WITH AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION USING WPC WHICH
PICK UP GULF WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND POPS AROUND 70%.

LIKED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM, DID NOT LIKE THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER NAM QUICKLY BECAME AN OUTLIER WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPING WAVE AND THE ECMWF FELL IN LINE WITH THE GFS BY SUNDAY.
USED A BLEND OF GFS22 WITH SOME ECMWF THEN TRANSITIONED TO WPC BY
DAY 4 TO DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ051.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-034-036-041>043-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-035-053.
&&

FRITSCH/PRB

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