Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE
RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS STILL WITH
US. TAKING THE FORM OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE OUTER COAST, IT IS BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO MOST OF THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AS FAR NORTH AS HAINES AND SKAGWAY, PRECIP
IS MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING, LEAVING THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO
BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO VARIOUS AREAS, NAMELY JUNEAU WHERE
THE AIRPORT HAS REPORTED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 29 KT THIS MORNING AND
CROSS SOUND WHERE WINDS AROUND 25 KT HAVE BEEN MEASURED. THESE
WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES OUT.

FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS ALREADY STARTING TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE
RATHER QUICK PROGRESS NE WITH RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS REACHING
THE OUTER COAST AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WILL BE INCREASING LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MOST WINDS WILL BE
SMALL CRAFT IN STRENGTH BUT SOME NEAR COAST AREAS MAY SEE SOME MIN
GALE FORCE WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS INTERACTING
WITH THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COAST. FOR THE LAND AREAS, YAKUTAT
WILL LIKELY SEE THE FIRST PRECIP BANDS REACHING THAT AREA THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE OUTER COAST NORTH OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FIRST PRECIP BANDS AND WINDS REACH THEM. LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTH ONLY REACHES 35 TO 40 KT SO STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST. THE ONLY PLACE
THAT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY IS THE EXTREME SE PANHANDLE AS THE
FRONT WILL NOT QUITE GET THERE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS FOR P-TYPE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S AND WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. EVEN HAINES AND SKAGWAY HAVE JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THIS MORNING AFTER SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY
REACHED THEM OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SO FOR SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPE EVEN INTO
TONIGHT. THE ONLY PLACES THAT MAY STILL SEE SNOW ARE THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT AS MAIN PRECIP BANDS REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST SO ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW INCHES.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
FEATURES WELL REPRESENTED. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT HAS BEEN ON A WAVE THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL ALREADY BE STRONG GALE FORCE BY MONDAY
MORNING. GROWING CONSENSUS AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE
DEVELOPING WAVE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS POSSIBLY TO STORM FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES AND THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND NEAR STORM FORCE OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT. CURRENT WIND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. HIGH WINDS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND A HIGH WIND
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF AND THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND, AM ANTICIPATING A FAIRLY STRONG SURGE OF POST FRONTAL
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND IN THE JUNEAU AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BOTH OF THESE FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY. 24
HOUR TOTALS UPWARDS OF A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
HIGHWAYS.

FORECAST PRESSURE AND WINDS UPDATED WITH A BLEND HEAVILY WEIGHTED
TOWARDS GFS22 MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. POP AND QPF
FROM BOTH GFS22 AND GEM FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033-035-036.
&&

EAL/FRITSCH

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