Gale Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

464 
FZAK52 PAJK 241752 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250130-
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
DRIFTS OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A NEW GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-250130-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-250130-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-250130-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-250130-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-250130-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
852 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

737 
FZAK52 PAJK 250104
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-251830-
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-251830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE LATE MORNING.
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 23 FT
BUILDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-251830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-251830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-251830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-251830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
325 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO
16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SE GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
410 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECASTER AREA WITH SOME BROKEN SKIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ARE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE BUT THERE IS SOME INCREASE SOUTH WINDS IN LYNN CANAL
TO 25 KT AND SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY.

THE SHOWERS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE SOME
THIS EVENING AS A UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A THE
UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT
OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING SOME MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT THIS TIME
AND THESE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
TO MIN GALES AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL AREAS SLOWLY LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF THE RAIN WITH STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE. ONCE THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET SO ALL PLACES NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL SEE RAIN
BUT THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY MAY SEE A FEW INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WIND WISE...ALONG WITH THE MIN GALES OVER THE EASTERN GULF SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO BE NEAR 15 FT. THE SOUTH WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY RELAX AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE E/W. SO WITH THAT SAID THE SMALL CRAFT WINDS
NEAR LYNN CANAL WILL BECOME LESS THAN 15 KT LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THE E/W WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NEAR ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND TO BE 20 TO 25 KT.
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KT. OVER LAND THE WINDS WILL BE
ON THE GUSTY SIDE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE ESE. THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY MORNING BUT
THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE FRONT FALLS APART THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED THE
12Z GFS22 FOR ANY UPDATES DONE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL AFFECT SE AK ALL NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG 200 MPH JETSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY
WILL HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UNDER A COLD STATIONARY UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW DIGS
IN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THE RESULT IS A MILD AND WET SW FLOW ALOFT AIMED AT SE AK
THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

SAT MORNING GFS EC AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
FORECAST PATTERN. FELT THE GFS AND CANADIAN MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
BETTER INITIALIZED THIS MORNING PARTICULARLY WITH THE SURFACE
WEATHER FRONTS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. DEVELOPING CYCLONE AROUND
40N 170W SAT AFTERNOON IS IN GOOD POSITION TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES SE AK MON. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFO
ANCHORAGE WE EXPECT THIS GALE TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF BY MON NIGHT
WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WE
FOLLOWED THE CANADIAN MODEL PRESSURE AND WIND GUIDANCE FOR SAKE OF
CONSISTENCY. AS THIS GALE MOVES PAST SE AK MON NIGHT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN STRONGLY OVER THE INNER CHANNELS TUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG WIND PATTERN BUILDING S TO N TUES.
THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND HEADLINES TUES.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN HEADING TO SE AK THUR. MODEL
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIP RATES WITH
THESE FRONTS TOO. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE ABOVE SEA LEVEL ALL WEEK
AND PROBABLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 1000 AND 4000 FT MSL ACROSS
PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AND HIGHWAY PASSES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
CONSIDERED AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-033-041.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

ABJ/TA

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