Small Craft Advisory 347, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...BREEZY AND WET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. S TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH ARE STILL BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN GULF AT THE MOMENT WITH GUST REACHING 30 MPH IN SOME
PLACES. THE RAIN HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE OUTER COAST AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
HAVE BEEN SPARED THE HEAVIER RAIN SO FAR AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
HAS LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS THAT HAVE LIGHTENED ANY RAIN
FALLING AND CREATED HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS OF 1
PM HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
24 HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING TAKING MUCH OF THE WIND AND RAIN WITH IT. BY LATE
TONIGHT MOST PLACES IN THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER TO
SHOWERS WITH ONLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH MORE RAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ALSO WINDS WILL HAVE LIGHTENED UP WITH MOST PLACES SEEING
WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS.

VERY BRIEF DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WED MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT LAST AS THE REMAINS OF A
WEAK LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN OUTER COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WED AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
OUTER COAST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THROUGH WED
EVENING. ALSO WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PICK BACK UP TO 30
KT AGAIN WED AFTER WEAKENING IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT FRONT
TONIGHT. DECIDED NOT TO GO FOR GALES AS I WAS NOT SEEING ANY
SUPPORT FOR IT AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE RISE WITH LYNN CANAL BEING THE MOST NOTICEABLE
(INCREASING TO 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON).

YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE WEAK LOW'S REMAINS
BUT IT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. INSTEAD IT
WILL BE SPREADING MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE
TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NAM FOR ANY NEEDED UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH MON...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS/W GULF WILL KEEP SE AK IN A S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE FIRST WILL RESULT IN
GALES OVER THE GULF AND NRN COASTAL ZONES WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER THE INSIDE WATERS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER CROSS SOUND
AND CLARENCE STRAIT. PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AS THE
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND AND SWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINDS AND PRECIP TO THE GULF AND SE AK SAT AND SUN.
ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAIN CHANGE WAS
TO LOWER PRESSURE/TIGHTEN GRADIENT FRI THROUGH SUN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-042-043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-053.
&&

BC/EAL

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