Small Craft Advisory 232, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...OLD PARENT LOW FROM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA
GWAII. THE FRONTAL BAND MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS
A PARTIALLY ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTH THROUGH HECATE
STRAIT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SATELLITE DETECTION IS
SHOWING A HANDFUL OF STRIKES WITH SOME OF THE MORE ENHANCED
SHOWERS BUT NONE NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE NOT THINKING INSTABILITY MOVES THAT FAR
NORTH. THE NEXT WRAP ABOUT THE LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
WESTERN HAIDA GWAII THIS EVENING. IT IS THIS BAND THAT WILL MOVE
NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. HEAVIER RAINS WITH THE MAIN LOW WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER 1.5
INCHES.

GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. ONLY
EXPECTING TO FIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR EXPOSED CAPES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND GALE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL MARINE WINDS.
MAINLY FOR THE THE MARINE ZONES 36 AND 41.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THINKING IN THE EXTENDED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SPRINGLIKE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING MULTIPLE
FEATURES INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. HOWEVER WITH THE
MAIN JET SUPPRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, SYSTEMS WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA. THEREFORE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND AS YOU HEAD NORTH. SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION.

USED THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGH DAY 4 THEN THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DECREASES IN REGARDS TO TIMING
AND STRENGTH DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-036-041-042.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.
&&

BEZENEK/TPS

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