Gale Warning 154, NWS Juneau, AK

198 
FZAK52 PAJK 071232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-080100-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH
MON BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR BARANOF ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF ON TUE 

$$

PKZ041-080100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-080100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING.
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-080100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-080100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SE
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-080100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN LATE.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...OLD PARENT LOW FROM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA
GWAII. THE FRONTAL BAND MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS
A PARTIALLY ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTH THROUGH HECATE
STRAIT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SATELLITE DETECTION IS
SHOWING A HANDFUL OF STRIKES WITH SOME OF THE MORE ENHANCED
SHOWERS BUT NONE NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE NOT THINKING INSTABILITY MOVES THAT FAR
NORTH. THE NEXT WRAP ABOUT THE LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
WESTERN HAIDA GWAII THIS EVENING. IT IS THIS BAND THAT WILL MOVE
NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. HEAVIER RAINS WITH THE MAIN LOW WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER 1.5
INCHES.

GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. ONLY
EXPECTING TO FIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR EXPOSED CAPES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND GALE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL MARINE WINDS.
MAINLY FOR THE THE MARINE ZONES 36 AND 41.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THINKING IN THE EXTENDED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SPRINGLIKE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING MULTIPLE
FEATURES INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. HOWEVER WITH THE
MAIN JET SUPPRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, SYSTEMS WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA. THEREFORE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND AS YOU HEAD NORTH. SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION.

USED THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGH DAY 4 THEN THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DECREASES IN REGARDS TO TIMING
AND STRENGTH DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-036-041-042.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.
&&

BEZENEK/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU