Small Craft Advisory 229, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER LOW IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND A SECOND ONE IS HEADED FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THE FORECAST ISSUES REMAIN THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE LOWS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT AND THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES,
NAMELY SKAGWAY/KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, AND
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST. IN ADDITION, AM EXPECTING IT WILL BE A
BLUSTERY DAY IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER CHANNELS TOMORROW WITH
GALE WARNINGS OUT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING OVER COASTAL
MARINE ZONE 41 AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTSIDE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE. ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
DUE TO WINDS, SEAS, OR BOTH.

THE LOW WEST OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND THESE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW EVENING, THE
THREAT OF RAIN FROM THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. IN BETWEEN, LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IT SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY TO GET OUTDOORS.

USED ECMWF FOR UPDATED TO PRESSURE AND WIND. POP IS A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN NH AND ECMWF. QPF FROM ECMWF. TEMPS ADJUSTED - MAINLY UP
- USING THE GFS MOS WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM THE NAM MOS. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE MORE
FRONT/TROUGH TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WHILE FALLING APART. SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE PARENT LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
BEING FORCED NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND WILL MOVE ALONG
THE OUTER COAST TO BE WEST OF CROSS SOUND BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
IS FILLING AS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SUPPRESSING THE LOW AND
IT WILL BE DISSIPATING MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE LOWER 960S MB AND ITS FRONTAL
BAND WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS TUESDAY FRONT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK INTO THE GULF AND ROTATE ABOUT IN
THE CENTRAL FROM MID WEEK ON. THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTION WAS
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. DO NOT THINK THAT
THE FORECAST SHIFTED ABOUT MUCH FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH
THE LOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL GULF A RETURN TO SEMI
REGULAR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF WIND/RAIN HEADED TO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041-042.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.
&&

FRITSCH/BEZENEK

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