Small Craft Advisory 224, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...AS ONE COMPACT BUT POTENT LOW DEPARTS THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE NORTHWEST, ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW ALONG A VERY SIMILAR
TRACK BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THE DIMINISHING
TREND WAS BEING OBSERVED AT CAPE SPENCER AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER CROSS SOUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT, HOWEVER. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WINDS
HAVE REMAINS AT SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN BOTH HAINES AND SKAGWAY. HERE TOO, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RELAX TONIGHT. BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING, LOOK FOR
WINDS TO RAMP UP AGAIN AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
OUTER COAST AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT BACK UP. LOOK FOR SMALL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN, CROSS SOUND, SUMNER, AND
CLARENCE. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FROM
THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE EDGECUMBE.

LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
RATHER DRY, PREVENTING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE TODAY. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND
TONIGHT ON THE INSIDE SOUTH OF HAINES, BUT TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT.
IF SHOWERS MAKE IT TO HAINES, CHANCES ARE THEY WILL FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, LOWS TONIGHT TOO
WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AGAIN TOMORROW SHOULD
PREVENT SHOWERS EAST OF THE CHATHAM STRAIT/LYNN CANAL CORRIDOR
TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO SUMNER STRAIT BY THE END OF THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN NH AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE
AND WIND TODAY. POP AND QPF FROM ECMWF, BUT TRUNCATED TO REFLECT
EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS INLAND AWAY FROM THE OUTER COAST. TEMPS
ADJUSTED USING BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE BRINGING YET
ANOTHER LOW/FRONT BAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. ONLY TO BE REPLACED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF BY ANOTHER LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOWS SEEMINGLY TAKES UP POSITION NEAR THE SAME SPOT SO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO THE NEXT WEEK WILL START TO SEE MORE SHORT
WAVES SPAWNING LOWS TO SWING NORTH PAST THE PANHANDLE AND BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SO SHOULD SEE A BAND FOR RAIN AND WIND MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT WHICH MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED
AS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY AND A TRAILING FEATURE WEDNSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF
BREAKS ON EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.

LOCALLY WINDY NEAR THE FRONTAL BANDS AS THE MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THAT COULD LIKELY LEAD TO GUST TO 40 MPH OVER LAND AREAS
AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE DUE THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE LATER
TIME FRAMES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-034-036.
&&

FRITSCH/BEZENEK

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