Gale Warning 151, NWS Juneau, AK

314 
FZAK52 PAJK 051223
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF SAT
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE WEST OF DIXON
ENTRANCE BY SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...AS ONE COMPACT BUT POTENT LOW DEPARTS THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE NORTHWEST, ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW ALONG A VERY SIMILAR
TRACK BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THE DIMINISHING
TREND WAS BEING OBSERVED AT CAPE SPENCER AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER CROSS SOUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT, HOWEVER. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WINDS
HAVE REMAINS AT SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN BOTH HAINES AND SKAGWAY. HERE TOO, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RELAX TONIGHT. BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING, LOOK FOR
WINDS TO RAMP UP AGAIN AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
OUTER COAST AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT BACK UP. LOOK FOR SMALL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN, CROSS SOUND, SUMNER, AND
CLARENCE. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FROM
THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE EDGECUMBE.

LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
RATHER DRY, PREVENTING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE TODAY. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND
TONIGHT ON THE INSIDE SOUTH OF HAINES, BUT TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT.
IF SHOWERS MAKE IT TO HAINES, CHANCES ARE THEY WILL FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, LOWS TONIGHT TOO
WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AGAIN TOMORROW SHOULD
PREVENT SHOWERS EAST OF THE CHATHAM STRAIT/LYNN CANAL CORRIDOR
TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO SUMNER STRAIT BY THE END OF THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN NH AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE
AND WIND TODAY. POP AND QPF FROM ECMWF, BUT TRUNCATED TO REFLECT
EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS INLAND AWAY FROM THE OUTER COAST. TEMPS
ADJUSTED USING BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE BRINGING YET
ANOTHER LOW/FRONT BAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. ONLY TO BE REPLACED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF BY ANOTHER LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOWS SEEMINGLY TAKES UP POSITION NEAR THE SAME SPOT SO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO THE NEXT WEEK WILL START TO SEE MORE SHORT
WAVES SPAWNING LOWS TO SWING NORTH PAST THE PANHANDLE AND BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SO SHOULD SEE A BAND FOR RAIN AND WIND MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT WHICH MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED
AS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY AND A TRAILING FEATURE WEDNSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF
BREAKS ON EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.

LOCALLY WINDY NEAR THE FRONTAL BANDS AS THE MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THAT COULD LIKELY LEAD TO GUST TO 40 MPH OVER LAND AREAS
AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE DUE THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE LATER
TIME FRAMES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-034-036.
&&

FRITSCH/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU