Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 4, 2016, 11:43 AM AKST (20:43 UTC)

Expired

Jan 4, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

150 
FZAK51 PAJK 042043 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050100-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST CANADA CAUSING OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM INTERIOR PASSES. 

$$

PKZ011-050100-
GLACIER BAY-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-050100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BERNERS BAY.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050100-
ICY STRAIT-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050100-
CROSS SOUND-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
S SWELL LATE.
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 6 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. S SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-050100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE MILE OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE MILE OR LESS.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE MILE OR LESS IN THE
MORNING
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ035-050100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1143 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 4, 6:14 AM AKST, 5 hours 29 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
614 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER DAY. A FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF IS CAUSING 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS HELPING TO KEEP SEAS IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA IS CAUSING SOME PRESSURE PACKING
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NELY OUTFLOW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
20-25KT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SKAGWAY WILL
HAVE THE STRONGEST WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40MPH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AWAY FROM THE INTERIOR PASSES...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. JUNEAU AND KETCHIKAN
VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED BETWEEN UNRESTRICTED AND 1/2 MILE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG IN JUNEAU TO BECOME DENSE AGAIN THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH THE OUTGOING TIDE (HIGH TIDE AT 833AM)...NAMELY
ALONG GASTINEAU CHANNEL UNTIL AFTER THE TIDE STARTS COMING BACK IN
(LOW TIDE AT 320PM). AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE FOG IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF JUNEAU LACK OF SNOWPACK AND
TIDAL FLATS SHOULD HINDER THE FOG FROM LASTING BEYOND THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE THE GREATEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINDY AND
CALM PLACES. FOR EXAMPLE SKAGWAY IS IN THE MID 30S WHILE THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY IS IN THE LOW 20S THIS MORNING. DIFFERENCES CAN
ALSO BE NOTED WITH THE INVERSION...THE MT ROBERTS TRAM IS
CURRENTLY 32 DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING...IN
PLACES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LIKELY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN THE LOW 30S. TONIGHT WILL SEE A REPEAT OF
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS FOG AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING
IN MORE/LESS WIND. TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THIS THEN
ADJUSTED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD CENTER AROUND WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ACTING IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH END
STRONG WINDS IN SKAGWAY MAY WIND UP BECOMING HIGH WINDS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS IN HAINES AS WELL, BUT FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREA AS WELL. OVER THE INNER CHANNELS, HIGH END GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MANY
OF THE REMAINING INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EVIDENT IN HIGH RESOLUTION, SHORT RANGE
MODELS. AND WHILE THIS FEATURE IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE LONGER
RANGE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT CHANGE
BEYOND THE LIMITS OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS. SO FORECAST
REASONING IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND COLD AIRMASS TRAPPED
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS THINKING COINCIDES
WITH MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN ARE SUGGESTED BY 850 MB
TEMPERATURE CHARTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THAT MUCH COLDER AS A
RESULT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO AIDE IN STRENGTHENING THE NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE KEPT LOW AS WELL DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION, THE AMOUNT OF TIME REQUIRED TO WARM
THE AIR COLUMN FROM ABOVE AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. AS ONCE MIGHT EXPECT, COLDEST CONDITIONS - DAY AND NIGHT
- WILL BE THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST FROM THE OUTER COAST.

USED A BLEND OF NAM AND CANADIAN NH FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND
WIND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EC USED FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WPC THEREAFTER. TEMPS ADJUSTED USING ECMWF, GFS,
AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE. POP, QPF, AND SNOW NO FACTOR FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

FERRIN/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.