Gale Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

843 
FZAK67 PAJK 041248
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST CANADA CAUSING OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM INTERIOR PASSES. 

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WESTERN AREA. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
603 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A TIME OF TRANSITION AS THE
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE PANHANDLE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
FINALLY DIES AND NORTHERLY OUTFLOW TAKES ITS PLACE. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE FRONT IS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT
WITH LIGHT PRECIP BANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN BARANOF, KUIU, AND
KUPREANOF ISLANDS. FOR MOST AREAS THIS PRECIP IS FALLING AS RAIN
BUT SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXING IN NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO
COOL OUTFLOW COOLING THINGS DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS ALSO
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA AS WELL THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY THAT FRONT WILL NOT HAVE LONG TO LIVE. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA HIGH IS STARTING TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THE
RESULTING INCREASING OUTFLOW WILL DRY OUT THE FRONT AND BEGIN TO
PUSH WHAT IS LEFT OFFSHORE. BY THIS EVENING ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER FOR THE PANHANDLE. OUT IN THE GULF, THE FRONT WILL REORIENT
INTO A SE/NW DIRECTION AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SE CAUSING THE
FRONT TO LINGER. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT AND EVEN SOME MIN GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL BE THE OVERALL RULE OUT IN THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AS THE PANHANDLE DRYS OUT, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
STARTING TO INCREASE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH
SUBSTANCE TO THEM AS THERE IS LITTLE COLD AIR LEAKING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE WINDS TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT, WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR MOST OUTFLOW AREAS.
AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW AREAS, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN UP A BIT SO
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE CLEARER SKIES, WILL
POSSIBLY MEAN SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE INNER CHANNELS
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS MANY PLACES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DECIDED ON STICKING WITH THE NAM FOR THE DETAILS THAT IT PROVIDED
WITH OUTFLOW WINDS IN VARIOUS AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

.LONG TERM...DRY OUTFLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW PERTIBATIONS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND B.C. MONDAY. THIS HIGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE YUKON BY TUESDAY CAUSING THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT BECOME
OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A SHARP VORTICITY
MAX AT THE CENTER WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN B.C. AND HELP TO
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED QUITE A BIT ON
HOW THIS LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...AND WHAT (IF ANY) SURFACE
IMPACTS IT HAS. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN (6Z)...THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW OVER HECATE STRAIT STARTING WED AND SHEARS IT APART THROUGH
TIME. THE ECMWF MOVES IT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
WED THEN NORTH ACROSS THE GULF TO YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CANADIAN IS EVEN FASTER WITH IT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON WED BUT NOT
INCLUDE ANY PRECIP. DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY CHANGE.
TIMING OF WHEN THIS PASSES WILL ALSO AFFECT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE FOR WINDS TO INCREASE IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WITH A MINOR TAKU
MOUNTAIN WAVE.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY
AS FAR AS ORIENTATION WITH THE HIGH IN CANADA AND THE GREATEST
PRESSURE PACKING ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RESULTED IN
WINDS OVER LAND AND THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS TO ALL BE EAST...NE
OR NORTH DIRECTION. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE PRESSURE
(GFS/ECMWF) WAS A BIT WEAKER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND
RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS. THE PRESSURE PACKING LOOKS TIGHTER
FRIDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. TEMPERATURES IN CANADA ARE ALSO PROGGED TO BE QUITE A BIT
COLDER THEN...SO OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE STRONGER. LATEST MODEL
RUNS BACKED OFF EVEN MORE ON PRECIP CHANCES MID WEEK ONWARD WITH
THE CANADIAN MODEL BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT HAD SOME.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN OUTFLOW WIND AREAS AND
PLACES THAT ARE BLOCKED FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL BE MOST
NOTICABLE IN THE SHORTER TERM WHEN AN INVERSION SETS UP. WINDY
PLACES WILL BE ABLE TO MIX THAT WARMER AIR DOWN (ALONG WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS) WHEREAS BLOCKED LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
WARMING UP UNLESS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
HELP ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS (NAMELY DURING OUTGOING TIDES) TO STICK
AROUND LONGER...HOWEVER PERSISTENT DRY OUTFLOW AIR FROM CANADA
SHOULD HELP WITH THAT SO ONLY HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED FOR MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

EAL/FERRIN

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