High Wind Watch 12, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday's front has passed through the area and a
few bands of showers are moving off the gulf and into the
panhandle this morning and afternoon. These should be dying down
headed into the evening hours with the possibility of a few breaks
in the sky cover overnight.

The next frontal band is close at hand, however, passing Kodiak
Island early Wednesday morning. Expect the wind and rain to move
into the north central gulf coast late this afternoon and to the
panhandle by midnight. Portions of the northern panhandle and
northeast gulf could draw in enough cooler air or still have it
trapped that a few flakes could be possible in those zones.
Behind the low center associated with the front is a pocket of
instability that will arrive over the central gulf by late
tonight. Satellite imagery this morning is showing larger open
cells and colder cloud top temperatures with occasional lightning
strikes being reported by satellite. Think the instability will
persist into early Thursday morning.

Winds with the front will increase to gale force across the
offshore and the northern coastal water late afternoon and into to
the tonight periods. Expecting 20 to 30 for much of the inner
channels as the front approaches tonight.

.LONG TERM...Another storm force low will enter the eastern gulf
Thursday night and in many respects, it looks like it will be a
repeat of the storm that affected southeast Alaska on Tuesday.
Another high wind event is possible for the southern outer coast
and southern inner channels. Another heavy snow event is also
possible for the Haines Highway. Slightly lesser amounts for the
Klondike Highway, but those amounts could change, so travelers on
both highways are advised to stay up to date with subsequent
forecasts. High wind and winter storm watches have been issue with
the morning forecast.

This next system will bring with it another strong push of warm
low level air, so accumulating snow is only a concern for the
highways. Biggest change in this regard was to raise snow levels
in the central inner channels, thus removing references to
accumulating snow. As the low ejects northeast into the Yukon,
cold air will descend from northwest Canada and the Alaskan
interior Saturday night. Temperatures will be significantly
colder by Sunday night with values below zero for the far
northern inner channels...ranging to the low 20s for the southern
panhandle. Strong northerly winds over the inner channels will
make freezing spray a very real possibility.

Blended ECMWF and GFS for updates to pressure through Friday
night. Winds primarily from GFS. Little to no change to PoP and
QPF. Changes to temperatures limited to an increase in overnight
lows for the central inner channels Thursday night. Overall
forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday
     night for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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