Gale Warning 329, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Strong low over the NE gulf will move onshore near
Yakutat this evening. An occluded front will move E into the
central gulf by Wed afternoon. Other than some minor
position/strength differences with the strong low, models were in
generally good agreement.

Main forecast concerns will be winds and precip potential/type.
Winds remain fairly strong over much of the inner channels with
cold front moving through the area. Am expecting these winds to
drop off some after fropa, except over the N where winds will be
increasing this evening. Decided to keep most of the wind hazards
as is, except started and ended the high wind warning for PAGY
area 3 hrs earlier, and ended the high wind warning for PASI
already. Will keep strong winds for much of the inner channels
going through at least the early evening time frame. Wind band on
S side of the low is around 45-50 KT over the gulf but this will
be slowly weakening as the low moves inland. Next front coming in
will increase winds to gale force again over the N-central and
central gulf by Wed afternoon.

Precip is still steady and locally heavy over the inner channels
along and ahead of the cold front. Precip will become showery
early this evening then diminish across the S and outer coast late
tonight. More steady precip will move into the gulf and NE gulf
coast Wed afternoon as next front pushes in. Ptype is looking like
rain except early on over the far N where snow will change to rain
as strong winds warm up lower levels. Keeping the winter storm
warning going through 6 pm, but the most additional snowfall will
be at higher elevations NE PAGY, and NW of the Haines area, which
has changed to rain. Up to 4 inches of additional snow is
possible early this evening.

Otherwise, temps in many areas will not fall much tonight, except
the cold areas over the far N will warm up tonight. Given that
some wind will likely continue into Wed morning, do not think fog
will be an issue. Was looking at possible TSTMS along upper trof
moving into the SE gulf late tonight, but think temps aloft and
CAPE forecast are marginal so left them out.

.LONG TERM...Occluded front will cross over the panhandle
Wednesday night with diminishing winds over the gulf on Thursday.
Precipitation from this front will be mainly rain with some snow
mixed over the central and northern panhandle. Only a few inches
possible. Another strong low impacting the region on Thursday
night will follow a similar pattern to the current system,
tracking from the southwest to northeast. This system will bring
potential of storm force winds to the gulf, holding just below for
now, wind gusts upwards of 60 mph to the coastal and southern
panhandle, keeping at 50 mph with current forecast, and more heavy
snow for the far northern regions and at higher elevations. Long
fetch of tropical moisture will produce more heavy rain elsewhere.
Pattern shift for the weekend and into next week as ridge
amplifies over the western gulf and cold arctic air drops in from
the north. Expect temperatures to drop into the teens to single
digits. This pattern will also bring about a drying trend so any
lingering precip will be snow but little QPF and accumulation
expected.

12z GFS/ECMWF were more in line and used to update the inherited
forecast. Still not at full potential for operational model winds
but started the increasing trend. Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ026-028.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021-024.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-025.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ017-023.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ020.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through Wednesday
     morning for AKZ019.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Wednesday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041-042-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021.
&&

RWT/PRB

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