Gale Warning 91, NWS Juneau, AK

163 
FZAK67 PAJK 251231
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-260100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THU. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NW INTO THE SW GULF AND SEND
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-260100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND TO 35 KT BECOMING S TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS TO 
18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
520 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THEN STALL AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES N
ALONG IT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT MOVES N THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS. SPOTTY
PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THRU...ALTHOUGH
THE NRN GULF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ATTM. LARGER PRECIP SHIELD
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ERN GULF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIDES
NWD...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FAR SERN AREA WILL HAVE TOUGHER TIME GETTING INTO
THE PRECIP THOUGH DUE TO PROXIMITY OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS
JUST TO THEIR E. KEPT LOWER POPS AROUND HYDER TO HANDLE THIS.
THINK THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO MOVE
IN. THINK THE MOST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WHERE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF...WITH 45-50
KT ELY WINDS GOING ON. REST OF THE ERN GULF IS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP SOME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK
BACK UP TO 35-45 KT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE A BRIEF
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SE GULF LATE IN THE DAY BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST WITH FRONT MOVING CLOSER AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WAVE TO MOVE IN. HAVE PUT UP STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONE 27 FOR
TONIGHT...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE IN ZONES 22 AND 23 AS WELL. INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MORE E-W CHANNELS...WITH
25-35 KT EXPECTED. THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS LOOK TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THOUGH DUE TO NEARLY PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THOSE CHANNELS. THE REMAINING N-S CHANNELS SHOULD SEE 20-30 KT
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEY WILL
GET WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN A FEW TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE SRN AREA. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP
MUCH TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUING TO MOVE NWD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THOUGHT MOS GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL TONIGHT FOR MINS
SO GENERALLY STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE IT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PUSHING N THROUGH THE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED/ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH CLARENCE STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND DURING THIS TIME.
GFS/EC IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT FLOW FRI-SAT WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING INTO S CENTRAL AK OR THE PAC NW. THIS
INDUCES SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS SE AK AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF RESULTING IN DIMINISHING POPS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN AND CHANGED TO SHOWER
WORDING BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS THE SAME STORM
TRACK...BUT TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS SUN...DIMINISHING MON...
THEN INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF A PARENT LOW OVER THE W GULF/E BERING. EACH WAVE
WILL GENERATE A SFC FEATURE THAT WILL TRACK MAINLY S-N THROUGH THE
GULF...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW-NE AS WAVES APPROACH.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND USED
GFS/EC TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MASS FIELDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>035-053.
&&

RWT/BC

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