Gale Warning 129, NWS Juneau, AK

611 
FZAK52 PAJK 250700 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-260100-
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-260100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-260100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-260100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-260100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-260100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1000 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

656 
FZAK52 PAJK 251235
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-260100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THU. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NW INTO THE SW GULF AND SEND
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-260100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-260100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-260100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-260100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN LATE.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-260100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.FRI...E GALE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
520 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THEN STALL AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES N
ALONG IT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT MOVES N THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS. SPOTTY
PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THRU...ALTHOUGH
THE NRN GULF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ATTM. LARGER PRECIP SHIELD
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ERN GULF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIDES
NWD...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FAR SERN AREA WILL HAVE TOUGHER TIME GETTING INTO
THE PRECIP THOUGH DUE TO PROXIMITY OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS
JUST TO THEIR E. KEPT LOWER POPS AROUND HYDER TO HANDLE THIS.
THINK THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO MOVE
IN. THINK THE MOST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WHERE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF...WITH 45-50
KT ELY WINDS GOING ON. REST OF THE ERN GULF IS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP SOME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK
BACK UP TO 35-45 KT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE A BRIEF
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SE GULF LATE IN THE DAY BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST WITH FRONT MOVING CLOSER AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WAVE TO MOVE IN. HAVE PUT UP STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONE 27 FOR
TONIGHT...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE IN ZONES 22 AND 23 AS WELL. INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MORE E-W CHANNELS...WITH
25-35 KT EXPECTED. THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS LOOK TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THOUGH DUE TO NEARLY PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THOSE CHANNELS. THE REMAINING N-S CHANNELS SHOULD SEE 20-30 KT
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEY WILL
GET WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN A FEW TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE SRN AREA. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP
MUCH TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUING TO MOVE NWD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THOUGHT MOS GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL TONIGHT FOR MINS
SO GENERALLY STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE IT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PUSHING N THROUGH THE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED/ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH CLARENCE STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND DURING THIS TIME.
GFS/EC IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT FLOW FRI-SAT WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING INTO S CENTRAL AK OR THE PAC NW. THIS
INDUCES SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS SE AK AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF RESULTING IN DIMINISHING POPS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN AND CHANGED TO SHOWER
WORDING BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS THE SAME STORM
TRACK...BUT TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS SUN...DIMINISHING MON...
THEN INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF A PARENT LOW OVER THE W GULF/E BERING. EACH WAVE
WILL GENERATE A SFC FEATURE THAT WILL TRACK MAINLY S-N THROUGH THE
GULF...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW-NE AS WAVES APPROACH.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND USED
GFS/EC TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MASS FIELDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>035-053.
&&

RWT/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU