Gale Warning 90, NWS Juneau, AK

437 
FZAK67 PAJK 242015 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1115 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-250100-
1115 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GULF WED INTO WED EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE NW TOWARD
THE SW GULF THU THROUGH FRI. 

$$

PKZ310-250100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1115 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
413 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT LOW TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS WILL TEMPER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
REFLECTIVITY ALOFT, INDICATING THAT PRECIP IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA, BUT NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AS VIRGA ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR ALOFT. LOOK FOR RAIN TO
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COAST NORTH OF CAPE DECISION,
THEN MOVE INLAND A LITTLE BIT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE DAY, POPS LIKELY OR HIGHER EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 26 AND MISTY FJORDS.

DAYTIME HEATING TODAY PLUS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN VICE SNOW OVER MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE. POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN IN THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY BASED ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AT THE FORECAST OFFICE.
AM ALSO THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL START OUT AS SNOW TONIGHT FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL AS THE HIGHWAYS BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE WHITE PASS WHERE TEMPS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING AFTER ABOUT 10 PM, THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND HIGHWAYS WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
THAT FAR INLAND.

IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH A STORM WARNING FOR MARINE ZONE 52 THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT THERE MAY BE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF OFFSHORE ZONE 310 THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT A LACK OF
BUOYS OR OBSERVATIONS FROM THERE PREVENTS VERIFICATION. GALES
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS A
WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RE-ENERGIZES WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. ON THE INSIDE, SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES FOR ALL OF
THE INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR LYNN CANAL DUE TO A WEAK, MARGINALLY
PARALLEL GRADIENT. BOOKEND GALE WARNING FOR CROSS SOUND FOR THIS
EVENING AND FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY 30 KTS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR PRESSURE AND GULF WIND DIRECTIONS.
WIND SPEEDS FROM GFS22. POP AND QPF BLENDED FROM THE CANADIAN,
ECMWF, AND NAMDNG5. TEMPS UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART. DID
DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE HIGHWAYS BY A FEW DEGREES.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND CAUSE A
WAVE ALONG THE PREVIOUS FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD WHERE
THE PRECIP DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT GO AWAY ALL TOGETHER
AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES UP.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A TROUGH OVER THE
NW GULF WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT TO SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOW
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOC
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(TUESDAY).

AS EACH LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IT ALLOWS FOR
BRIEF FAIR WEATHER BREAKS BETWEEN EACH ONE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
FLOW. IT ALSO CAUSES THE WINDS TO GO BACK AND FORTH N-S WHICH IS A
FORECASTING CHALLENGE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIVERGE MORE ON SUNDAY. USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
THROUGH THE MID RANGE THEN WPC FOR PRESSURE/WIND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>036.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

FRITSCH/FERRIN

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