Gale Warning 127, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
438 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE
MORNING WILL SHIFT ENE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES N ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE SURFACE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
CNTRL/NRN GULF MARINE ZONES...WITH STRONGEST WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING CONFINED TO MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52 BY 12Z WED. WINDS FOR
E-W ORIENTED INSIDE CHANNELS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
STRENGTH...PARTICULARLY CROSS SOUND...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH
GALE DURING TUE EVENING. DUE TO THE FRONT REMAINING WELL
OFFSHORE...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND THE DRYING OFFSHORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...HIGHEST POP VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE GULF AND WRN AKZ017...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INLAND LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD OCCUR
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN
PAC WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM. WILL SEE SEVERAL SYSTEMS
MOVING N INTO THE GULF DURING THE NEXT WEEK ALONG A SOMEWHAT WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE N ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WED...WITH A STRONGER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE GULF BY THU NIGHT. THEN THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER LOW
MOVING N INTO THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THESE SYSTEMS...BUT DIFFER ON SMALLER SYSTEMS THAT
MIGHT BE ON THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE IN BETWEEN THEM. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE MILD AND SOMEWHAT WET SIDE DURING
THE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
WET IT WILL BE DURING SOME OF THE TIME.

FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING N WILL HELP PUSH
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INCREASE THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE WAVE WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS SOME AS IT MOVES N THRU
THE GULF. THINK BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. THE NRN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN
THAN THE SRN AREA...WITH HYDER HAVING THE LEAST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AREAS OVER THE
FAR N...BUT WARMER AIR SHOULD CHANGE MOST OF THESE AREAS TO RAIN
BY WED AFTERNOON. MAY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER
COAST AREA WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THU ONWARD...ONSLAUGHT OF WARM MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKS LIKE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/WIND EVENT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT
AS LOW MOVES N INTO THE GULF. AGAIN...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
HEADLINES ESPECIALLY OUTER COAST. SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS
FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES UP FOR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER W THAN THE THU-THU NIGHT
SYSTEM SO THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD STAY MORE OVER THE GULF. ALL
IN ALL...A VERY NON-WINTRY WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>036.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

GARNER/RWT

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