Gale Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

464 
FZAK51 PAJK 182131 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-190330-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL TRACK NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ011-190330-
GLACIER BAY-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-190330-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-190330-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS SOUTHERN AREA. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-190330-
ICY STRAIT-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-190330-
CROSS SOUND-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN LATE.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-190330-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-190330-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-190330-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. HIGHEST WINDS SOUTHERN AREA. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-190330-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-190330-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-190330-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1231 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
314 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE STORM FORCE 969 MB LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM WSW OF
CRAIG AT 3 PM/00Z. IT HAS BEEN MOVING NW ABOUT 30 KT PARALLEL TO
THE PANHANDLE COAST. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WINDS AT OR ABOVE 60
MPH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 27 THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY.

OBSERVATIONS ALONG COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA SUN AFTERNOON INCLUDE
WIDE SPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SEEM TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CURLS OF OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW CENTER. HI RESOLUTION NAM MODEL MAINTAINS 70 KTS WIND BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FT MSL ALG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MIXING
THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS LIKELY AND HENCE
WIND WARNING JUSTIFIED. WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT SE AK AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. SRN PANHANDLE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH SO FAR. MAIN
IMPACTS OF WIND SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

EXTRAPOLATING STORM MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
KEEPS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW CENTER HEADED THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ZONE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THERE IS PRECIP
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. PRECIP SHOULD STEADILY LIFT NORTH INTO MONDAY
BUT AMOUNTS MAY BE MINIMIZED BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS OVER
COASTAL MTNS. RAIN UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE ALONG EXTREME OUTER
COAST AND GENERALLY HALF INCH OR LESS MOST OF INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE RAIN MOST ALL AREAS
DUE TO WARMER SLY ORIGINS OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, LOCALLY TRAPPED
COLD AIR INNER CHANNELS AND ESPECIALLY LYNN CANAL WILL LIKELY
CAUSE PRECIP AS SNOW. 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW MENTIONED THERE MAINLY
INLAND AWAY FROM WATERWAYS.

A NEW BUT WEAKER GALE WILL FOLLOW NNW ALONG THE COAST MON NIGHT AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS SHOW IT TAKING A VERY
SIMILAR PATH AS TONIGHTS STORM. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDDED FORECASTS USING THE HI
RESOLUTION NAM. CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF WIND AND RAIN TONIGHT
AND MON IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS NRN
INNER CHANNELS NOT AS HIGH.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE AK GULF FROM
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
CURRENT GALE FORCE LOW TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD KODIAK. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK, JUST CENTERED MORE TO THE
WEST AND A BIT WEAKER, THUS EXPECTING LOWER WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY JUST A ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTH TRACKING NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AK GULF. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE THIS LOW DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE STARTED
TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS, WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODELS STABILIZED A BIT MORE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE AK GULF WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY WITH EASTERLY
OUTFLOW BETWEEN THE GULF LOWS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA.

EACH SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD. OVERALL THINK THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THESE BANDS AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. CONTINUED THE TREND TO TONE DOWN MODEL QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY THE PAST FEW DAYS. NOT GETTING A
GOOD CONSENSUS ON SURFACE TEMPS BUT OVERALL MODEL 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS KEEP A RAIN-SNOW LINE JUST NORTH OF JUNEAU. MOS
GUIDANCE STARTED TO SHOW SOME COOLER TEMPS BUT NO ONE MODEL HAS
BEEN HANDLING IT WELL. EITHER THEY KEEP THE NORTH TOO WARM OR DROP
THE RAIN SNOW LINE TOO FAR SOUTH. WITH THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND DOWN SLOPE WINDS THINK THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVERNIGHT,
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE MORE SNOW, BUT FOR NOW NO MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN. THE
EXCEPTION BEING WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH MORE MORE SNOW IN THE RAIN
SNOW MIX.

WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE BEEN HANDLING TEMP WELL GETTING FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND NAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TRACK OF THE GULF LOWS. GEM BECAME AN OUTLIER VERY EARLY SO
WAS IGNORED. USED A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF TO UPDATE INHERITED
GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4. THIS BUMPED UP SOME WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS BUT OVERALL FORECAST REMAINED THE SAME. DAY 5 ONWARD USED
NEW WPC FOR AN ENSEMBLE BLEND, WHICH HAD THE BIGGEST CHANGE
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AK GULF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS SUCH AS TEMP AND QPF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-034-036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-035-053.

&&

TA/PRB

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