Storm Warning 5, NWS Juneau, AK

037 
FZAK52 PAJK 180748 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-181400-
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 969 MB STORM 200 NM WEST OF HAIDA GWAII SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE NW THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT. A
NEW 986 MB GALE WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-181400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-181400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 
26 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-181400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF 
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-181400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-181400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1045 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
314 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE STORM FORCE 969 MB LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM WSW OF
CRAIG AT 3 PM/00Z. IT HAS BEEN MOVING NW ABOUT 30 KT PARALLEL TO
THE PANHANDLE COAST. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WINDS AT OR ABOVE 60
MPH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 27 THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY.

OBSERVATIONS ALONG COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA SUN AFTERNOON INCLUDE
WIDE SPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SEEM TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CURLS OF OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW CENTER. HI RESOLUTION NAM MODEL MAINTAINS 70 KTS WIND BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FT MSL ALG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MIXING
THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS LIKELY AND HENCE
WIND WARNING JUSTIFIED. WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT SE AK AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. SRN PANHANDLE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH SO FAR. MAIN
IMPACTS OF WIND SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

EXTRAPOLATING STORM MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
KEEPS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW CENTER HEADED THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ZONE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THERE IS PRECIP
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. PRECIP SHOULD STEADILY LIFT NORTH INTO MONDAY
BUT AMOUNTS MAY BE MINIMIZED BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS OVER
COASTAL MTNS. RAIN UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE ALONG EXTREME OUTER
COAST AND GENERALLY HALF INCH OR LESS MOST OF INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE RAIN MOST ALL AREAS
DUE TO WARMER SLY ORIGINS OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, LOCALLY TRAPPED
COLD AIR INNER CHANNELS AND ESPECIALLY LYNN CANAL WILL LIKELY
CAUSE PRECIP AS SNOW. 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW MENTIONED THERE MAINLY
INLAND AWAY FROM WATERWAYS.

A NEW BUT WEAKER GALE WILL FOLLOW NNW ALONG THE COAST MON NIGHT AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS SHOW IT TAKING A VERY
SIMILAR PATH AS TONIGHTS STORM. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDDED FORECASTS USING THE HI
RESOLUTION NAM. CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF WIND AND RAIN TONIGHT
AND MON IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS NRN
INNER CHANNELS NOT AS HIGH.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE AK GULF FROM
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
CURRENT GALE FORCE LOW TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD KODIAK. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK, JUST CENTERED MORE TO THE
WEST AND A BIT WEAKER, THUS EXPECTING LOWER WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY JUST A ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTH TRACKING NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AK GULF. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE THIS LOW DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE STARTED
TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS, WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODELS STABILIZED A BIT MORE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE AK GULF WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY WITH EASTERLY
OUTFLOW BETWEEN THE GULF LOWS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA.

EACH SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD. OVERALL THINK THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THESE BANDS AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. CONTINUED THE TREND TO TONE DOWN MODEL QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY THE PAST FEW DAYS. NOT GETTING A
GOOD CONSENSUS ON SURFACE TEMPS BUT OVERALL MODEL 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS KEEP A RAIN-SNOW LINE JUST NORTH OF JUNEAU. MOS
GUIDANCE STARTED TO SHOW SOME COOLER TEMPS BUT NO ONE MODEL HAS
BEEN HANDLING IT WELL. EITHER THEY KEEP THE NORTH TOO WARM OR DROP
THE RAIN SNOW LINE TOO FAR SOUTH. WITH THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND DOWN SLOPE WINDS THINK THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVERNIGHT,
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE MORE SNOW, BUT FOR NOW NO MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN. THE
EXCEPTION BEING WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH MORE MORE SNOW IN THE RAIN
SNOW MIX.

WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE BEEN HANDLING TEMP WELL GETTING FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND NAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TRACK OF THE GULF LOWS. GEM BECAME AN OUTLIER VERY EARLY SO
WAS IGNORED. USED A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF TO UPDATE INHERITED
GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4. THIS BUMPED UP SOME WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS BUT OVERALL FORECAST REMAINED THE SAME. DAY 5 ONWARD USED
NEW WPC FOR AN ENSEMBLE BLEND, WHICH HAD THE BIGGEST CHANGE
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AK GULF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS SUCH AS TEMP AND QPF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-034-036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-035-053.

&&

TA/PRB

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