Gale Warning 379, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 29 2016

FXAK67 PAJK 300005
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Thu Dec 29 2016

.SHORT TERM / Thursday night to Friday night / ... Next frontal
band sweeping east across the northern gulf and south central part
of the state tonight and through Yakutat around midday Friday.
The front will continues south across the panhandle nearly
clearing the panhandle of precipitation by Saturday morning. The
frontal precipitation looks to last roughly 6 hours. There may be
some light pre-frontal precipitation starting a few hours sooner.

Models suggests a pulse of warmer air ahead of the front and then
a moderate cool down behind it. When the front makes its turn
southward over the panhandle. We are looking for a large change
in the gradient orientation on Friday. Have a south gale force
winds in the northern canal shifting to a north gale. Across the
main gulf wide spread 35 to 45 kt winds with gusts up to 55 kt
possible Friday afternoon headed southeast through the gulf
lowering below gale force Saturday.

Looks like White pass may pick up around 4 inches of snow on
Friday and the winds will be brisk out of the south and shifting
to the north. Have issued Winter weather for Snow and Blowing
Snow. Snow amounts still slightly suspect.

.LONG TERM...High pressure building over the AK gulf will become
dominant feature through the week. Dry weather in store through at
least mid week before potential wave rides over a flattening ridge
then drops over the panhandle. While colder air at the surface is
expected temps should only drops into the 20s with teens at
higher elevations. Gradient over the panhandle weakens so
northerly winds will drop in magnitude through Saturday. As ridge
builds the northwesterlies over the eastern gulf will pick up
again to small craft levels with potential tips jets developing
near Cross Sound and Cape Decision.

Biggest weather impact will be as the ridge builds in a warm mid
level air mass moves over the panhandle. With cooling surface
temps, remaining moisture from previous precip, and low level
inversion developing from west to east Saturday night have
potential for a significant fog event. For now still watching
model runs on coverage and visibility restrictions but starting
to mention patchy fog in the forecast. If fog does develop it
will not clear significantly during the day and thus have impacts
on air travel.

Models were in good alignment and still showing fair run to run
consistency. Little change made to main forecast grids with only
addition of fog. Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

Bezenek/PRB

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