Gale Warning 375, NWS Juneau, AK

967 
FZAK52 PAJK 301259
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-310700-
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. 

$$

PKZ041-310700-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE.
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-310700-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 11 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT BY LATE EVENING. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-310700-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-310700-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-310700-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
359 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

662 
FZAK52 PAJK 310025
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-311830-
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. 

$$

PKZ041-311830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-311830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-311830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN
THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-311830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-311830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
325 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

510 
FZAK52 PAJK 311243
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-010645-
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ041-010645-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-010645-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. PATCHY FOG IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-010645-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. PATCHY FOG IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-010645-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. PATCHY FOG IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-010645-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
343 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
541 AM AKST Thu Dec 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Significantly less shower activity this morning then
yesterday at this time across the area with most of it north of
Frederick Sound. An area of mid level vorticity and some low
level convergence are concentrating the showers in bands lining up
from between Cross Sound and Sitka to Lynn Canal. Temperatures
have been warm enough that most of the precip has been rain but
some snow has mixed in from time to time with little accumulation.
Meanwhile the southern half of the panhandle has cleared out for
the most part thanks to the offshore flow from a storm heading
into the BC coast farther south. There are some areas of low
clouds and fog around Petersburg and Wrangell but obs at
Petersburg have shown it to be very variable on visibility and
ceiling.

Diminishing showers are the main rule for the short range as a
surface ridge begins to build in from the SW. The band of showers
over the northern panhandle will start a drift to the SE this
morning but will be diminishing as it goes. Ptype will primarily be
rain but a mix of snow at times is not out of the question with
little in the way of accumulation expected. By late this afternoon
or evening showers should have dissipated completely with most of
the clouds diminishing. Winds will also be on the diminishing
trend as pressure gradients relax this afternoon.

The clearer skies for tonight ahead of the next front will allow
for some radiational cooling with temps dipping below freezing in
a few places before the winds start to increase again. Some fog is
also not out of the question around Petersburg again tonight so
decided to put some patchy fog into the forecast for that area.

Focus then shifts to a new front that will just be entering the
northwestern part of the area late tonight. Onshore flow will be
increasing ahead of the front with increasing chances of precip
and increasing clouds for late tonight for many areas as a result.
Kept pops at chance tonight for most areas as the main moisture
and forcing has yet to make it in to the area by that point. Winds
will also be increasing across the north as southerly pressure
gradients begin to tighten up again. Lynn Canal in particular
should increase to 25 kt by late tonight so have a small craft
advisory posted there for late tonight.

.LONG TERM...Strong upper shortwave trof will move SE across the
area Fri and Fri night. Cold front will move SE through the area
just ahead of the shortwave. Strong upper ridge will build into
the area for the weekend and early next week. The ridge will
likely weaken over our area but reform over W AK and E Bering Sea
late next week.

Expect increasing precip over the N Fri morning then over the S
Fri afternoon as shortwave and cold front move in. System is
fairly energetic and will likely produce a burst of moderate to
locally heavy precip for several hours just ahead of the front.
Temps will be generally in the 35-40 range during much of the
precip event, but during the heavier burst temps may fall several
degrees due to snowmelt cooling. Moderate to strong S-SW low level
flow will try to counteract that by bringing in marine airmass
from the gulf, so ptype will be in flux during the day especially
over the N and E areas. Think snowfall would not amount to more
than a couple inches in most of this area, but a few spots that
are more sheltered in S-SW low level flow could see more
consistent snow and could get close to advisory levels. Think
best chance of this near sea level will be around Petersburg.
Higher elevations should get decent shot of snow with above 1000
feet getting at least 6 inches over the central and S area. The N
higher elevations should see a bit less but still could get 4-5
inches, and a winter weather advisory could be needed for White
Pass area Fri. Sly winds of 15-25 mph will be common over the
area Fri, with even stronger Nly winds likely beginning Fri night
over the N after cold front and shortwave trof move past the
area. Some of these stronger winds will move S across the area
later Fri night and Sat morning.

Should see decent amount of clearing Sat although some higher
level clouds could brush the NE area. Cooler air should also move
in but not looking like a significant cold blast at this point.
Still, with some leftover snow cover in some areas, nighttime
temps may be able to drop into the teens Sat night over the N and
far E areas.

One thing that will have to be monitored for Sun night into early
next week is potential for fog to develop and not dissipate during
the daytime. Upper ridge building in will warm temps aloft with
925 mb temps possibly rising above freezing by Sun night. Winds
will likely die off as well with high pressure in control over the
area, setting up potential for a strong inversion to form in lower
1-2K ft. This would trap moisture in lowest levels and with some
snowmelt in warmer layer aloft, add even more moisture to the
lower levels. There are differences in the models on how warm the
elevated warm layer will get, but setup is one that has caused
multi-day fog episodes in the past. Want models to sort out their
differences with warm layer above the surface before adding in
mention of fog however.

A weak shortwave trof could move in toward midweek, which might
bring in a little precip but also weaken any inversion that has
formed and decrease the fog threat. After upper ridge rebuilds
further W and strong Nly flow aloft develops over the area, much
colder air will be able to move in for late next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
&&

EAL/RWT

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