Gale Warning 342, NWS Juneau, AK

192 
FZAK52 PAJK 030018
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-031830-
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE AROUND LITUYA BAY EARLY THIS
EVENING. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH SAT AND MOVE INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NW CANADA THROUGH SUN.  

$$

PKZ041-031830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-031830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 33 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-031830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-031830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-031830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
318 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL LATE. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
418 PM AKST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...A storm force low will move NE into the eastern
gulf tonight, then move onshore near Cape Fairweather by early Fri
evening. Associated occluded front will move NE across the area
tonight and Fri morning, with second wrap of front affecting the
outer coast late Fri morning and afternoon. Used blend of the 12z
GFS and GEM, which took low track a little further W and
strengthened it some.

Big concerns will be winds and snowfall. The low level jet ahead
of the front reaches 75-85 KT at 850 mb, which will be enough for
gusts to 55+ KT over many land areas ahead of the front. Kept the
high wind warnings going for zones 23, 27 and 28. Added in zones
25 and 26 to warning area. Zone 23 will also get hit by second
wrap of front beginning late Fri morning, which will bring another
round of high wind to them. See NPW statement for valid times.
Have strong wind headlines for zones 21, 22, and 24 as well. These
areas will get strong winds with both the initial front and second
wrap. Will have storms for entire gulf area and over Clarence
Strait/Cross Sound with initial front tonight, then most of the E
gulf will have second round of storm force winds as second wrap of
front moves in Fri. Expect high end gales for much of the
remaining central and southern channels tonight and Fri, both from
the initial front and second wrap. Far N channels should reach SCA
levels at most during tonight and Fri.

Most places will get rain from this system, but the far N and
Hyder areas will see snow. Think heavy snow is likely for the
Haines highway west of the Chilkat River bridge and the Klondike
highway near White Pass. Kept the winter storm warnings going for
these areas, although did shorten the zone 19 warning until Noon
Fri with precip decreasing in the afternoon. Snowfall will be 9 to
14 inches in the zone 19 warning area and 12 to 18 inches in the
zone 18 warning area. Haines and Skagway will probably only see 1
to 3 inches of snow...mainly due to warmer temps and some rain
mixing in especially near Haines. Hyder could see 3 to 5 inches of
snow by late Friday morning.

Otherwise, temps will generally remain fairly steady or rise
slowly over much of the area, with the far N having better chance
to cool off tonight as low level flow shifts to northerly. There
could be a few TSTMS Fri afternoon over the S gulf but confidence
was not high enough to include at this time. Seas will get
extremely high especially near second wrap of front, with 34 to
38 feet likely over the SE gulf Fri.

.LONG TERM...The storm force low will have partially moved
inland by Friday night. Strong southwesterlies winds will slowly
fall overnight, but most who venture outside will begin to notice
a distinct chill in the air. Atmospheric thicknesses and snow
levels will begin falling Friday night with snow making an
appearance over most of the Panhandle on Saturday. Onshore flow
with the possibility of a convergence zone setting up ahead of the
the flank of cold air moving south will likely yield 1 to 3 inches
of snow across portions of the northern and central Panhandle for
Saturday into Saturday night. Friday night we raised Lynn Canal to
30 kt southerlies and there lies the possibility of very windy
conditions for Skagway Friday night. Quickly though as the
pressure gradient relaxes Saturday, higher pressure will build to
our north allowing a surge of colder air and drier air to
infiltrate the Panhandle from the north. Winds will then turn
northerly Saturday night in a big way. With such cold air, our
confidence in strong northerlies for Skagway and Haines are
bolstered. We have even placed freezing spray in many of the
northern and north-central Inner Channels into early next week.

We expect the frigid air mass and associated clearing to lower
temperatures to levels we have not seen in quite a while with
highs nearing 20 and lows approaching 10 for the areas of the
central Panhandle and subfreezing temperatures all the way south
across Southeast. Haines and Skagway could dip to near zero. This
cold and dry pattern looks benign except for the northerly outflow
winds through Haines and Skagway and some northern Inner Channels.
Eventually though, we feel that some system will interrupt it by
infusing our atmosphere with overrunning moisture from the south.
The ECMWF is more bullish on these prospects...spreading snow into
the Panhandle as early as Wednesday. The GFS though keeps things
cold and dry. However, the late 18Z GFS run now is following the
ECMWF's hints of an overrunning event Wednesday/Wednesday night.
At this point, we made very little changes in the extended period
with a chance of snow and continued cold from mid-week onward.

GFS/ECMWF was used Friday night into Saturday night with some new
WPC employed mid-next week. Forecast confidence good.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Friday for
     AKZ026>028.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Friday evening
     for AKZ024.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to noon AKST Friday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     AKZ022.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Friday for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Friday morning
     for AKZ021.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKST Friday
     for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-031>035-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012.
&&

RWT/JWA

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