Storm Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

655 
FZAK52 PAJK 020811
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030215-
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THU
NIGHT...THEN GO ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER BY EARLY FRI
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-030215-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 60 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SW LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 85 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 33 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE.
.FRI...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 35 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-030215-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS 24 FT
BUILDING TO 32 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-030215-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT...EXCEPT 75 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 75 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-030215-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 55 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT
INCREASING TO 80 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE.
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-030215-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1111 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 55 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT
INCREASING TO 80 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

430 
FZAK52 PAJK 021304
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030715-
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THU
NIGHT...THEN GO ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER BY EARLY FRI
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-030715-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 26 FT BUILDING TO 33
FT. SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 24 FT
LATE. SHOWERS.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030715-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 32
FT. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030715-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 70 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030715-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030715-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
404 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
610 AM AKST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Busy weather to start with this morning as snow
falls across the Haines and Klondike Highways in an overrunning
event as a weather front moves inland early thursday. Do expect
preciptiation for southeast Alaska to diminish to light amounts
through midday.

A strong low is moving across the gulf and will move into the
northeast gulf Thursday night. This low has several similarities
with the Tuesday storm. Look for strong gusty winds to impact the
southern coastal areas Tonight as front approaches and moves
through in the evening. Then a strong westerly start to spread
back to the Prince of Wales Island area Late Thursday night. The
systems has its formation start in the mid pacific and satellite
imagery has water content over 200% of normal with up to 1.5
inches based on the moisture sampling.

As all the moisture with this next system spreads inland look for
another round of heavier snows spread back to the northern Lynn
canal areas along the highways near the borders. Have bumped up
the watch for heavy snow to a winter weather warning for late
Thursday into Friday.

.LONG TERM...Wind and snow from the low discussed above will still
be an issue at the start of the extended range forecast period. As
the low weakens Friday night over the northern gulf, a colder low
to mid level airmass will advect into the forecast area from the
west. This will lower snow levels and keep snow showers going a
bit longer. The surface low will then track off to the southeast
on Sunday and shower activity will diminish as a very cold near
surface airmass descends from the Yukon and interior Alaska.
Overnight lows will get very cold Sunday and Monday night with
single digit temperatures as far south as the Icy Strait corridor
and low 20s all the way down to the Dixon Entrance. At the same
time, a strong northerly pressure gradient will set up and produce
northerly gales over the far northern inner channels with small
craft winds as far south as Frederick Sound and eastern portions
of Sumner Strait. Gale force winds combined with these very cold
temperatures will likely produce freezing spray for the northern
inner channels.

Updated pressure and wind with NAM and GFS through Saturday night.
Used a blend of ECMWF and GFS for pressure and wind directions
through Monday night with GFS for wind speeds. PoP and QPF early
on from Canadian NH and SREF. Temps adjusted using ensemble GFS
with snow levels adjusted to temperatures. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ021-024-
     026-028.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Friday for
     AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043-051.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-053.
&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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