Gale Warning 299, NWS Juneau, AK

645 
FZAK53 PAJK 101221
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-110100-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 20
FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 7 FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT EAST SIDE OF THE
BAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT EAST SIDE OF
THE BAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT EAST SIDE
OF THE BAY. SE SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A storm force occluded front over the S-central
gulf will drift ne into the E gulf then stall tonight. A low
pressure wave will develop and move along the front late tonight
and Thu morning. Once the wave passes, the front will move onshore
SE AK late Thu morning and afternoon. Used blend of the 12z NAM
and GFS to handle things through Thu, with models fairly close on
main features. Main difference between them was timing and
strength of the low pressure wave.

Main forecast concern will be winds. The strongest low level flow
will reach the SE gulf and southern outer coast late tonight as
low pressure wave moves by them. The strongest wind band will move
NW with the wave into the N gulf Thu. Winds of around 55 KT are
expected in the strongest part of the band. Storm force winds will
reach Clarence Strait late tonight and continue Thu morning. Gales
are expected for most of the central and remaining southern
channels. Only the far N channels should stay out of the really
strong winds...with only 15-25 KT winds expected there. Have made
some modifications to timing of high wind warnings based on when
low level jet interacts with those areas. Have much of the
remaining central and southern area with strong wind headlines
late tonight into at least Thu morning.

Otherwise, some shower activity will occur over the area this
evening with steadier rain coming in with the front late tonight.
after the front passes, precip will transition back to showers.
Some of the rain could be heavy at times late tonight and Thu
morning. Despite the rainfall, not expecting any hydrologic
issues as water levels are on the low side. Only potential for
snow will be along the upper Klondike highway near White Pass.
Could see several inches of snow there late tonight and Thu. TSTMS
will initially move into the SW part of the offshore waters
tonight after front passes and vort max moves in. TSTM activity
will begin to move further E and affect most of the E gulf and
coastal/S sections of the inner channels by late Thu afternoon.

.LONG TERM...The next in a series of front to affect southeast
Alaska will arrive early in the extended range forecast
period...on Friday. As with the ones before it, there will be
heavy precipitation associated with it - mainly over the northern
half of the panhandle. The second will arrive along the outer
coast Saturday night and soon thereafter, the third will reach the
southern outer coast Sunday morning. Finally, a weaker fourth
front will arrive Monday night.

Each of these front will produce small craft or higher winds over
the eastern gulf. With such rapidity of frontal passages, there
will be no time for seas over the eastern gulf to subside, thus,
expect combined seas from 10 to 20 feet over all of the eastern
gulf for the entirety of the upcoming week. prevailing winds will
be 90 degrees off the primary swell direction for much of that
time, increasing wave steepness.

Snow levels remain high, so the only chance for snow will be
along the highways through the weekend. That situation may change
into the next week as temperatures gradually cool and the series
of fronts discussed above impact the panhandle.

This is payback for a mild, dry, and pleasant October.

Extended forecast remains in good shape, thus no consequential
changes prior to Sunday. used latest WPC thereafter, which
introduced a triple point low over the eastern gulf on Sunday.
Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND from midnight AKST tonight through Thursday morning
     for AKZ022-026.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND Thursday morning for AKZ023-027.
     STRONG WIND from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND from 3 AM AKST Thursday through Thursday morning for
     AKZ021.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to noon AKST Thursday for AKZ028.
     STRONG WIND from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Thursday for
     AKZ028.
     STRONG WIND Thursday afternoon for AKZ028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-021-022-031>035-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.
&&

RWT/Fritsch

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