Gale Warning 269, NWS Juneau, AK

160 
FZAK67 PAJK 081237
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-090630-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING 950 MB LOW WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-090630-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

403 
FZAK67 PAJK 090007
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-091400-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING 950 MB LOW WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE SW GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS 22 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

782 
FZAK67 PAJK 091230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-100630-
330 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-100630-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
330 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO
18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
215 PM AKST Mon Nov 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...A large cyclonic gyre was centered at 49.7N/146.3W
during midday Monday, with an embedded upper disturbance rotating
around its SWRN periphery. The disturbance and an associated
surface wave are forecast to eject NE toward the ERN gulf by
Tuesday afternoon. As this occurs, gale force SELYS will develop
over the outer marine zones, as well as the southern inner
channels. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the
previously mentioned disturbance combined with a potentially
unstable atmosphere will support isolated thunderstorm development
over the gulf and immediate coast throughout the short term
period. Meanwhile, temperatures will hover near freezing along the
Haines and Klondike Highways. As a result, waves of precipitation
spreading north across the region will yield periods of
snow...though 12 hour accumulations are forecast to remain just
below advisory level at this time.

.LONG TERM...A low will drift N and dissipate over the NW gulf by
late Tue night. Next in parade of systems will move into the gulf
Wed. Strong low will head N toward the SW gulf, while strong
occluded front will move into the SE gulf by Wed evening. The
front will push slowly across the area Wed night and Thu. The low
should move N across the W gulf Thu-Fri while weakening. Another
system will move into the gulf for the weekend, with models still
trying to figure out track of main low center. Models hint that
another system or two will affect the area for early next week,
but they differ somewhat on this. Ended up using a blend of the
12z NAM with previous for 18z Wed-00z Fri, then used mainly latest
WPC for 12z Fri onward.

The showers over the area will persist Tue night with weakening
low over the W gulf. Still threat for TSTMS with the low and
associated vort maxima aloft along mainly the N gulf. Warming
aloft should diminish the TSTM threat from the S during the
night.

More rain and wind will move in with strong occluded front Wed and
Wed night. Looking like storm force winds ahead of the front over
the E gulf mainly Wed night. Will likely need wind headlines for a
good part of the panhandle Wed night into Thu with high winds not
out of the question. Transition back to showers should occur Thu.
Will likely have some TSTM activity around the main low and along
any trofs/vort maxima in post-frontal environment over the gulf
for at least Thu. The wet and windy weather will persist even
behind the front with a strong pressure gradient and onshore flow
persisting over entire area into Fri, and there will likely be one
or more trofs moving across the area that enhance this.

Weekend still looks wet but temps may begin to cool a bit
especially Sun into early next week. Still does not look cold
enough for snow near sea level though.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND Tuesday afternoon for AKZ025-027.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

Garner/RWT

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