Gale Warning 266, NWS Juneau, AK

767 
FZAK67 PAJK 022324
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-031400-
400 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL APPROACH THE DIXON ENTRANCE FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ310-031400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE GALE 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. W SWELL
EARLY IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...NW GALE 35 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. S
SWELL. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

081 
FZAK67 PAJK 031151
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL TRACK N OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THU EVENING. ANOTHER STRONG LOW
WILL MOVE N INTO THE SE GULF FRI.  

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WIND TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

391 
FZAK67 PAJK 040002
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-041400-
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAKENING GALE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
YAKUTAT BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND NORTH OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE ON SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-041400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW STORM TO 50 KT. STRONGEST WIND EASTERN HALF. SEAS
12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

155 
FZAK67 PAJK 041135
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE INLAND NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE ON SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH TO EASTERN DIXON ENTRANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WINDS LIGHT INCREASING TO NE 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL
EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E OF 140 W NW WIND 50 KT...OTHERWISE NW WIND 35 KT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKDT Tue Nov 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a
weakening weather front extending across the eastern gulf and
tracking northward over the panhandle. This front produced rain
showers over the southern half of the panhandle through the
morning with showers developing for the northern panhandle through
the early evening, however these showers will be lighter and more
intermittent as front shears apart. Next low pressure system
moves up from the NE Pacific into the SE gulf Wednesday afternoon
with rain developing over the far southern panhandle. Temperatures
have risen to the upper 40s to low 50s and expect surface airmass
to sty warm enough to keep most precip as rain. Some clearing
breaks in between the exiting front and the advancing low for
tomorrow. Fog was a question due to the clearing breaks but timing
of these either occurred late in the afternoon or when winds
increased. Cold air at 500 mb with steep lapse rates and
convective environment evident on visible satellite imagery. Ample
CAPE for convection but as strongest forcing for ascent will be in
the mid level westerlies south of the region continued to hold off
on mention of thunder storms. Following this thinking as of the
afternoon any reported lightning strikes have been south of our
AOR.

Gales force winds under low level jet along the front today are
starting to subside with diminishing gulf winds through the
evening. Winds over the southeast gulf will pick up to small
craft levels again as the next low advances.

Main change was to the POP field using a blend of SREF and NAMDNG
to show the break between the exiting front and advancing low.
Otherwise forecast continues on track with average confidence.

.LONG TERM...Model agreement was better today, but still far from
a high confidence scenario. Night shift picked up on an eastward
adjustment to the track of the Wednesday night low and have
continued adjusting the track to the east. With the close
proximity of the low to the panhandle, the biggest manifestation
of these changes will be in the strength of the winds. Current
forecast tracks a gale force low inland near Cape Decision and
then northeast into British Columbia by Thursday evening. Expect
rapid wind shifts over the southern inner channels and coastal
marine zones as the low moves over the area. There will be a
brief break in the action as another gale force low enters the
eastern gulf from the south on friday evening. This second one is
currently forecast to remain over the eastern gulf, spreading gale
force winds up to near Yakutat Bay over the coastal marine zones.
The morning ECMWF and GFS were a reasonably good match for this
low with the GFS being slightly stronger. Afternoon model run
showing the same trend with the Canadian NH now looking more like
GFS. Forecast confidence on this low still below average. 24 hours
later, a third low will approach from the south, taking a track
very similar to the first of these three systems. Current
forecast reflects a preference for the ECMWF with this third low.

In terms of PoP, details still far from certain and confidence is
low, but there is a clear trend back to more typical weather for
this time of the year - and that would be rain, with a chance for
snow at higher elevations. Counting the short term period, there
are 4 fronts forecast to affect southeast Alaska over the coming
week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ042-053.
&&

PRB/Fritsch

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